Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Prediction – 5/23/2025

On May 23, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citi Field in what is expected to be an exciting National League matchup. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Mets sitting at 30-20 and the Dodgers at 31-19. This game marks the first in a series between the two clubs, and it carries significant weight as each team looks to solidify their position in the standings.

The Mets are projected to start Griffin Canning, who has been a pleasant surprise this season with a 5-1 record and an excellent ERA of 2.47. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as his xFIP sits at 3.38, indicating he could face challenges moving forward. Canning's high groundball rate (56%) may work in his favor against the Dodgers' powerful offense, which has belted 81 home runs this year, ranking 2nd in MLB.

On the other side, Clayton Kershaw will take the mound for the Dodgers. Despite a rough start to the season with an ERA of 11.25, projections indicate he could bounce back, as his xFIP of 6.14 suggests he has been unlucky. Kershaw is known for his resilience, and he will need to bring his best to contain a Mets offense that ranks 9th in MLB.

The Mets' current moneyline is set at +100, reflecting a close contest, while the Dodgers sit at -120. Betting markets are leaning slightly towards Los Angeles, but with the Mets' solid offensive performance and Canning's ability to keep the ball on the ground, this matchup could swing in New York's favor. With the game total currently at 8.5 runs, expect a competitive showdown as both teams vie for an early edge in the series.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

With 7 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Clayton Kershaw has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme flyball batters like Max Muncy are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Griffin Canning.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Mookie Betts hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Among all starting pitchers, Griffin Canning's fastball spin rate of 2159 rpm is in the 8th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Brandon Nimmo is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The New York Mets projected batting order grades out as the 4th-strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.64 Units / 46% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.85 Units / 17% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.70 Units / 61% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.46, New York Mets 4.55

• Date: May 23, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clayton Kershaw - Dodgers
  • Griffin Canning - Mets

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