Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Pick – 5/25/2025

On May 25, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citi Field in what shapes up to be an intriguing matchup. Both teams are in strong form, with records of 31-21 and 32-20, respectively, and this game marks the third in their series. The Mets are enjoying a solid season, currently sitting in a competitive position, while the Dodgers boast the 2nd best offense in MLB, highlighted by their ability to hit for power with 81 home runs.

Kodai Senga is projected to take the mound for the Mets. He has been a standout performer this season, showcasing a remarkable ERA of 1.43, ranking him as the 51st best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. However, his xFIP of 4.14 suggests he may be due for some regression. Senga's high groundball rate (47%) could prove beneficial against a Dodgers lineup that thrives on home runs.

Landon Knack is set to start for Los Angeles, and while he has a respectable Win/Loss record of 2-1, his ERA of 6.17 indicates struggles on the mound. With a high walk rate (9.5 BB%), Knack may face challenges against a patient Mets offense that ranks 5th in MLB for walks.

The Mets' offense, while ranked 10th overall, has been inconsistent in terms of batting average and home runs, but they remain a threat, especially with their best hitter performing well recently. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive encounter. The Mets' moneyline is currently at -135, reflecting their slight edge in this matchup, which could be an opportunity for sports bettors looking to capitalize on a close game.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Landon Knack’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2477 rpm) has been significantly better than than his seasonal rate (2408 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Typically, hitters like Max Muncy who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Kodai Senga.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Los Angeles Dodgers bats jointly grade out 4th- in the majors for power this year when using their 10.7% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Considering that groundball hitters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Kodai Senga (35.8% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 4 GB hitters in the opposing team's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jeff McNeil has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (94% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Brandon Nimmo has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 48 games (+10.25 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.30 Units / 26% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 59% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.85, New York Mets 4.78

• Date: May 25, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Landon Knack - Dodgers
  • Kodai Senga - Mets

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