Los Angeles Dodgers VS Minnesota Twins Betting Pick & Preview – 4/8/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins Overview

• Date: April 8, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • James Paxton - Dodgers
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
• Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 105, Twins 1.5 -125
• Money Line: Dodgers -155, Twins 135
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Los Angeles Dodgers - 59%
• Minnesota Twins - 41%

Projected Win %:

• Los Angeles Dodgers - 56.73%
• Minnesota Twins - 43.27%

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated Interleague matchup, the Minnesota Twins are set to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers on April 8, 2024, at Target Field. The Twins, who are currently struggling with a 3-4 record this season, will hope to turn things around against the dominant Dodgers, who boast an impressive 8-4 record so far.

Bailey Ober is projected to start on the mound for the Twins. Ober, a right-handed pitcher, has had a rough start to the season, with an ERA of 54.00. However, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Ober is considered the #65 best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting that he may be able to bounce back in this game.

On the other side, the Dodgers will rely on left-handed pitcher James Paxton. Paxton, who has a 0.00 ERA this year, is projected to have an average performance. While his ERA is impressive, his 5.38 xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress moving forward.

The Twins offense ranks as the #24 best in MLB this season, while the Dodgers have the #3 ranked offense. The Twins have struggled in key offensive categories such as team batting average and stolen bases. In contrast, the Dodgers have excelled in areas like home runs, which could pose a challenge for Ober, who is a high-flyball pitcher.

Based on the current odds, the Twins are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +125, implying a win probability of 43%. The Dodgers, as betting favorites with a moneyline of -145, have a 57% chance of winning according to the odds.

With the Twins eager to turn their season around and the Dodgers aiming to continue their dominant run, this game promises to be an exciting showdown between two teams with contrasting records. Baseball fans can look forward to seeing how Bailey Ober and James Paxton perform on the mound and whether the Twins offense can overcome the power of the Dodgers.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

James Paxton has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 5.3 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Freddie Freeman will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bailey Ober in today's matchup.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Mookie Betts pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.6% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 11th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Bailey Ober in the 88th percentile among all SPs in the game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

The Minnesota Twins projected offense ranks as the 4th-weakest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games (+12.00 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 79 away games (+19.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• Will Smith has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.00 Units / 36% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.81 vs Minnesota Twins 3.95

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