Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/15/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: August 15, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Flaherty - Dodgers
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers host the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 15, 2024, both teams are vying for postseason positioning, with the Dodgers currently sitting at 71-50 and the Brewers at 68-52.

In their last outing, the Brewers secured a win against the Dodgers, a result they will look to replicate in this contest. The Brewers are having a good season but will need to elevate their level of play once again to compete with a Dodgers offense that ranks 2nd in MLB and has been a powerhouse, particularly in home runs, where they sit 3rd overall.

On the mound, Tobias Myers will take the start for the Brewers. While he has an impressive ERA of 2.79 this season, his xFIP of 4.01 suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune. He has been effective overall, but his projections indicate a struggle today, averaging only 4.8 innings pitched and allowing 2.6 earned runs. Conversely, Jack Flaherty for the Dodgers boasts a solid 2.97 ERA and ranks 38th among MLB starting pitchers. His ability to pitch deeper into games, averaging 5.6 innings, gives the Dodgers a significant edge in this matchup.

Despite the odds, the Brewers' offense ranks 8th in MLB and has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly with William Contreras leading the way over the past week. However, with the Brewers being underdogs at +125, they face an uphill battle against a Dodgers team that has high expectations. As the game approaches, all eyes will be on the pitchers, who will play a crucial role in determining the outcome.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Jack Flaherty has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 6.8 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Kevin Kiermaier's true offensive talent to be a .273, implying that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .038 gap between that mark and his actual .235 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense ranks as the strongest on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Tobias Myers must realize this, because he has relied on his non-fastballs a lot this year: 58.3% of the time, grading out in the 75th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jackson Chourio is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The 7.2% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers ranks them as the #23 offense in baseball this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 96 games (+9.65 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games (+7.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Mookie Betts has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 away games (+10.35 Units / 35% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.04 vs Milwaukee Brewers 3.92

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