Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Picks 8/13/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: August 13, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gavin Stone - Dodgers
  • Colin Rea - Brewers

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 13, 2024, both teams find themselves in a competitive National League landscape. The Brewers, with a record of 67-51, are having a solid season, while the Dodgers sit slightly ahead at 70-49, boasting a great season. This matchup is significant, as it marks the second game in a series that could impact playoff positioning.

In their last outing, the Dodgers showcased their strength, defeating the Brewers, which adds pressure on Milwaukee to bounce back in front of their home crowd at American Family Field. The Brewers are projected to start Colin Rea, who has had a decent season with a 10-3 record and a solid 3.38 ERA. However, advanced metrics suggest he might have been a bit lucky, as his 4.33 xFIP indicates potential for regression. Rea's ability to limit runs will be crucial, especially against a Dodgers lineup that ranks 5th in MLB offensively.

On the other side, Gavin Stone takes the mound for Los Angeles. Although his overall performance has been labeled below average, he has managed a respectable 3.71 ERA and a 9-5 record. Stone’s low walk rate will be tested against the Brewers’ patient offense, which ranks 3rd in walks drawn. This could tilt the matchup in favor of the Dodgers if Stone can maintain his control.

The Brewers’ offense ranks 8th overall, but they struggle with power, sitting at 20th in home runs. Meanwhile, the Dodgers excel in this department, ranking 3rd in MLB. With a game total set at 8.5 runs, the betting market sees this as a closely contested game, reflected in the moneyline odds favoring the Dodgers slightly at -130. Milwaukee, at +110, presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors looking for value, especially given their strong home performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

In his previous start, Gavin Stone didn't have his best stuff when it came to striking hitters out and only managed to tally 2 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.275) implies that Miguel Rojas has been very fortunate this year with his .310 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Los Angeles Dodgers batters collectively rank 5th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 9.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colin Rea to throw 85 pitches in today's game (12th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Jake Bauers has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (61% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 65 games (+8.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+6.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• Mookie Betts has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.35 Units / 31% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.37 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.56

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.