Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Odds & Picks – 8/12/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: August 12, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clayton Kershaw - Dodgers
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 12, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in a competitive National League. The Brewers sit at 67-50, just a game and a half behind the division leaders, while the Dodgers are slightly ahead with a record of 69-49. This matchup marks the first game of their series and carries significant implications as both teams aim to maintain momentum in the playoff race.

In their most recent outing, the Brewers showcased their offensive prowess, with Willy Adames leading the charge. Adames has been on a tear, batting .348 with 8 hits, 8 runs, and 9 RBIs over the last week, including 4 home runs. As a result, the Brewers' offense ranks 7th best in MLB, bolstered by their strong batting average of .272, which ranks 5th overall.

On the mound, Freddy Peralta is projected to start for Milwaukee. Despite a Win/Loss record of 7-6 this season, his advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, with a 3.51 SIERA that indicates potential for improvement. Peralta's high flyball rate (39 FB%) could be a concern against a powerful Dodgers lineup that has belted 139 home runs this season, ranking 3rd in the league.

For Los Angeles, Clayton Kershaw will take the mound. Although Kershaw's ERA sits at 4.38, his 3.42 FIP indicates he has faced some misfortune as well. However, Kershaw's control, with a low walk rate of 5.0 BB%, could negate the Brewers' patient approach at the plate, where they rank 3rd in walks.

With both offenses capable of generating runs, the projected total of 8.0 runs seems reasonable. Betting markets have set both teams' moneylines at -110, reflecting the closeness of this anticipated battle. The projections favor the Brewers slightly, suggesting they may outperform their implied team total of 4.00 runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Clayton Kershaw to throw 81 pitches in this matchup (11th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Freddie Freeman may have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Milwaukee Brewers only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Los Angeles's 89.3-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the game: #5 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta's curveball usage has fallen by 8% from last year to this one (12.5% to 4.5%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

In terms of his home runs, Andruw Monasterio has been unlucky since the start of last season. His 5.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been considerably lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 11.8.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Jackson Chourio hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 52 games at home (+10.55 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.95 Units / 23% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.64 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.21

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