Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction – 6/28/2025

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to face the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 28, 2025, they find themselves in a challenging position. Currently sitting at 38-44, the Royals are having a below-average season, and their recent performance has not provided much hope. In their last game, Kansas City fell to the Dodgers, who boast a stellar 52-31 record and rank as the best team in MLB. This matchup marks the second game of the series, and the Royals will need a significant turnaround to avoid a series sweep.

Seth Lugo is projected to take the mound for the Royals. Despite ranking as the 102nd best starting pitcher in MLB, Lugo has posted an impressive 2.93 ERA this season, indicating a solid performance, even if his 3.93 xFIP suggests he has benefited from some good fortune. However, he projects to allow an average of 3.3 earned runs today, which could be problematic against a potent Dodgers lineup that ranks 1st in team batting average and home runs.

On the other side, Shohei Ohtani is expected to start for Los Angeles. While he has not started any games this season, his 4.50 ERA is deceiving, as his 2.54 xFIP indicates he has been unlucky. Ohtani is a low-walk pitcher, which could play into the hands of a Royals offense that ranks as the 1st least in walks drawn. Still, the projections suggest that Ohtani will keep the Royals in check, allowing just 1.3 earned runs on average.

With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs, the Royals are currently an underdog with a moneyline of +145. They have an average implied team total of 4.20 runs, while the Dodgers are heavily favored at -165, boasting an implied total of 5.30 runs. This game presents a significant challenge for the Royals, who will need to find a way to outscore a dominant Dodgers team if they hope to secure a win.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Ben Casparius must realize this, because he has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls a lot since the start of last season: 65.7% of the time, grading out in the 91st percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Shohei Ohtani has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 101-mph average to last season's 99-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The best projected batting order on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo's 91.4-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 23rd percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Los Angeles's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Bobby Witt Jr., who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals' bullpen profiles as the 5th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 77 games (+30.35 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 74 games (+9.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• Max Muncy has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 20 away games (+9.85 Units / 49% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.96, Kansas City Royals 4.67

• Date: June 28, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shohei Ohtani - Dodgers
  • Seth Lugo - Royals

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.