Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals Pick – 6/29/2025

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 29, 2025, the Royals are coming off of one of their best performances of the 2025 season. They got a 9-5 win over the Dodgers on Saturday despite the fact that they are sitting at 39-44 this season and ranked 27th in MLB offensively. This Interleague matchup represents the third game of the series, with the teams splitting the first two.

Kansas City’s Kris Bubic takes the mound with a solid 6-5 record and an excellent ERA of 2.18, making him the 31st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, projections suggest he may face challenges today; his 3.29 xFIP indicates that he has potentially benefited from good fortune this season. Bubic is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs, while striking out 5.0 batters—decent numbers, though he is also expected to give up 5.8 hits on average.

On the other hand, the Dodgers will counter with Justin Wrobleski, who has struggled in his limited appearances this season. With a 3-2 record and a below-average ERA of 4.91, he is expected to pitch 4.8 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs. However, his underlying metrics show some promise; his xFIP suggests he could perform better moving forward.

Offensively, the Dodgers boast the best offense in MLB, leading in batting average and home runs. In contrast, the Royals rank poorly across the board. Given the stark differences in offensive firepower and starting pitching effectiveness, the projections may favor the Dodgers, but the Royals could surprise if Bubic can outpace expectations and their best hitter continues to perform. The game total is set at 9.5 runs, hinting at a potentially high-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Justin Wrobleski is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #30 HR venue in the league in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tommy Edman has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 5.3% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the last week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Will Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 4th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Considering the 1.62 discrepancy between Kris Bubic's 2.18 ERA and his 3.80 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this year and should see negative regression the rest of the season.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Bobby Witt Jr. has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.9-mph to 95.6-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Kansas City Royals (19.4 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup of all teams on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 34 games at home (+22.15 Units / 56% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 73 games (+10.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 25 games (+6.10 Units / 22% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.36, Kansas City Royals 5.1

• Date: June 29, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Wrobleski - Dodgers
  • Kris Bubic - Royals

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.