Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals Pick – 6/27/2025

On June 27, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Kauffman Stadium for the first game of their interleague series. The Royals currently sit at 38-43, struggling through a below-average season, while the Dodgers boast a strong 51-31 record, showcasing their dominance as the best offense in MLB.

The matchup features two contrasting pitchers: Noah Cameron for the Royals and Dustin May for the Dodgers. Cameron, a left-handed pitcher, has had a mixed season, with a 2-3 record and an excellent ERA of 2.08. However, his 4.33 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate, indicating a potential regression. Cameron's projections indicate he is likely to pitch only 4.9 innings, allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs, which could be problematic against a powerful Dodgers lineup that has hit a league-high 128 home runs this season.

On the other side, Dustin May, a right-handed pitcher, has a 4-5 record with an average ERA of 4.46. He projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing about 2.7 earned runs, which is more manageable against a Royals offense that ranks 27th in MLB. The Royals have struggled significantly, particularly in power hitting, ranking 29th in home runs with just 56 this season.

With the Royals' bullpen ranked 4th best in MLB, they may have an advantage late in the game, but the Dodgers' strong offense and Cameron's potential vulnerabilities make them the favorites to win. The game total is set at a high 9.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a high-scoring affair. As the Royals look to turn their season around, this matchup presents a challenging test against one of the league's best teams.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Freddie Freeman has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 9.1% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The best projected lineup of all teams today in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Noah Cameron is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #30 HR venue in MLB today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Kyle Isbel's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 90-mph figure last season has lowered to 87.7-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The 7% Barrel% of the Kansas City Royals grades them out as the #29 team in Major League Baseball this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 63 games (+24.05 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 79 games (+10.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 65% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.75, Kansas City Royals 4.69

• Date: June 27, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dustin May - Dodgers
  • Noah Cameron - Royals

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