Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/26/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros Details

• Date: July 26, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gavin Stone - Dodgers
  • Framber Valdez - Astros

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers are set to face off on July 26, 2024, at Minute Maid Park in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. With the Astros (53-49) having an above-average season and the Dodgers (62-42) enjoying a great season, this game holds significance for both teams as they look to assert their dominance.

The Astros will have left-handed ace Framber Valdez on the mound. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Valdez ranks as the 23rd-best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 pitchers in MLB, indicating he is a top-tier talent. With an 8-5 record and a 3.63 ERA this year, Valdez has shown consistency. However, his high projected ground-ball rate (62%) could be key against the powerful Dodgers lineup, which ranks 3rd in MLB with 139 home runs. Valdez's ability to keep the ball on the ground might neutralize some of the Dodgers' power.

On the other side, the Dodgers will start right-hander Gavin Stone. Stone has been solid with a 9-3 record and a 3.19 ERA. However, his 4.03 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate, and he could be due for some regression. Stone faces a challenging task against the Astros offense, which ranks 10th overall and 2nd in team batting average. Despite being a low-strikeout pitcher (18.8 K%), Stone might struggle against an Astros lineup that strikes out the 3rd least in MLB.

The Astros' bullpen ranks 10th, while the Dodgers' bullpen is 6th, indicating both teams have reliable relief options. In terms of recent form, Houston's Yordan Alvarez has been hot, batting .409 with a 1.277 OPS over the last week, while Gavin Lux has been the standout for the Dodgers, hitting .450 with a 1.426 OPS in the same period.

Betting markets indicate a tight contest with the Astros having a slight edge at -130, translating to a 54% implied win probability. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are at +110, with a 46% implied win probability. With the game's total set at 8.5 runs, an average scoreline is expected, but given the strengths and potential weaknesses of both starting pitchers, this game could hinge on timely hitting and bullpen performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Gavin Stone was rolling in his last outing and conceded 1 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Will Smith has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 11.4% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 2nd-best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez is an extreme groundball pitcher (59.2% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Minute Maid Park — the #7 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Yordan Alvarez has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.2-mph to 100.4-mph over the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Houston Astros bullpen projects as the 9th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 41 games (+15.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 39 away games (+3.70 Units / 9% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 38 games (+7.40 Units / 15% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.44 vs Houston Astros 4.58

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