Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers Betting Pick & Preview – 7/12/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: July 12, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Wrobleski - Dodgers
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

On July 12, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Comerica Park for the first game of their interleague series. The Tigers, currently holding a 45-49 record, are having a below-average season. In contrast, the Dodgers are enjoying a great season with a 55-39 record. The Tigers are not currently in contention for a playoff spot, while the Dodgers are solidly in the playoff hunt.

Detroit will send their ace, Tarik Skubal, to the mound. Skubal, ranked as the #1 best starting pitcher in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been stellar this season, boasting a 10-3 record and an excellent 2.37 ERA over 18 starts. He projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs on average, and striking out 6.8 batters. Skubal's low walk rate (4.6 BB%) could neutralize one of the Dodgers' biggest strengths, as they rank 2nd in walks drawn.

On the other side, the Dodgers will counter with Justin Wrobleski, who has struggled in his limited action this season. Wrobleski has an 0-1 record with a 7.20 ERA over just one start. His peripheral stats suggest some bad luck, with a 4.53 xFIP indicating potential for better performance. However, he projects to allow 2.5 earned runs and only strike out 3.6 batters over 4.5 innings, which isn't promising against any offense, even one as weak as Detroit's.

The Tigers' offense ranks 26th in MLB, struggling in multiple facets, including batting average (23rd), home runs (21st), and stolen bases (28th). Meanwhile, the Dodgers' offense is a juggernaut, ranking 1st overall, 5th in batting average, and 3rd in home runs. Their only average mark is in stolen bases, where they rank 17th.

Despite the Tigers' offensive struggles, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a slight edge with a 56% win probability for this game. The betting markets are also relatively optimistic about Detroit, with an implied win probability of 55% based on their current moneyline of -135. The Dodgers, with a moneyline of +115, have an implied win probability of 45%, aligning closely with their projected 44% win probability.

Given Skubal's elite status and the Tigers' slight edge in projections, Detroit looks to have the upper hand in this matchup, particularly if Skubal can dominate as expected. However, with the Dodgers' potent offense, this game could still be ​UM << SBO Jac апт (...

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Justin Wrobleski has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 14.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

There has been a decrease in Miguel Rojas's average exit velocity this season, from 87.3 mph last year to 84.8 mph now

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal's sinker percentage has risen by 8.3% from last season to this one (12.2% to 20.5%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Javier Baez's true offensive talent to be a .290, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .088 disparity between that figure and his actual .202 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Andy Ibanez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 89th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 2nd-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 31 games at home (+6.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 29 games (+3.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the RBIs Over in his last 10 games (+11.25 Units / 102% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.24 vs Detroit Tigers 4.59

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