Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Prediction & Picks – 9/27/2024

• Date: September 27, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Undecided - Dodgers
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Dodgers visit the Colorado Rockies on September 27, 2024, at Coors Field, it's a matchup of two teams on opposite trajectories. The Dodgers, boasting a stellar record of 95-64, are enjoying a dominant season and clearly have their sights set on postseason success. Meanwhile, the Rockies, at 61-98, find themselves enduring a challenging year and have long been out of playoff contention in the National League West.

Recently, both teams claimed victories: the Rockies over the Cardinals with a 10-8 win, and the Dodgers cruising past the Padres 7-2. The Rockies' offense, ranking 18th in MLB, is average and will face the daunting task of outdueling the Dodgers, who pack a punch with the 2nd-best offense in the league. The Dodgers excel in power, ranking 3rd in home runs and 5th in batting average, while the Rockies' offense sits in the middle of the pack.

On the mound, the Rockies are expected to start Cal Quantrill, a right-hander who ranks 257th among MLB starting pitchers. Quantrill has an 8-10 record and a 4.72 ERA, which is average, but his underlying metrics suggest struggles, especially against a patient Dodgers lineup that ranks 2nd in walks. The Dodgers have yet to decide on who will take the ball for them. Though considered below average, the Dodgers' bullpen is 11th-best, providing a safety net for whoever does start for Los Angeles.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Dodgers a 64% win probability, slightly higher than the implied 62% from the betting odds. While the Rockies enter as significant underdogs, projections suggest they could score a notable 5.52 runs, hinting at a potentially high-scoring affair, with the total game runs set at 11.5.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

When it comes to his home runs, Andy Pages has suffered from bad luck this year. His 15.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been quite a bit lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 24.8.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Cal Quantrill has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an extra 3.0 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Nolan Jones has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 5.3% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Aaron Schunk ranks in the 10th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 38 games at home (+9.35 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 81 games (+18.15 Units / 20% ROI)
• Aaron Schunk has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games at home (+8.80 Units / 126% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 7.62 vs Colorado Rockies 5.41

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.