Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Prediction – 6/26/2025

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 26, 2025, at Coors Field, they're entering the matchup with a dismal record of 18-62 this season. The Rockies have struggled significantly, ranking as the 26th best offense in MLB. Meanwhile, the Dodgers sit comfortably at 50-31, boasting the best offense in the league. In their last game, the Dodgers showcased their offensive prowess with a commanding victory over the Rockies.

On the mound, the Rockies are projected to start Austin Gomber, who has had a rough season, with an ERA of 8.38 and a Win/Loss record of 0-1 in just two starts. Gomber's 53% flyball rate could be a cause for concern, especially against a powerful Dodgers lineup that has hit 127 home runs this season. However, Gomber's low walk rate of 4.6% may help him mitigate some damage against a patient Dodgers offense.

Conversely, the Dodgers will counter with Clayton Kershaw, who has been solid this year with a 3.31 ERA and a 3-0 record across seven starts. Kershaw's low strikeout rate of 17.7% may not be ideal, especially facing a Rockies lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB for strikeouts, which could play into his favor.

The game total is set at a high 12.0 runs, reflecting expectations for plenty of scoring. With the Rockies' recent struggles and the Dodgers’ dominant season, this matchup leans heavily in favor of Los Angeles. The projections indicate that while the Rockies are significant underdogs, they may still have a high implied team total of 4.55 runs, hinting at the potential for an upset if Gomber can find a groove.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Clayton Kershaw's 88.4-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 4th percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Freddie Freeman stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Shohei Ohtani projects as the 2nd-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Austin Gomber is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #7 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Brenton Doyle has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .246 figure is significantly deflated relative to his .311 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected offense is weaker than usual, as their .304 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .324 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 71 games (+6.45 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 39 games (+9.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• Andy Pages has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.90 Units / 33% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 8.09, Colorado Rockies 6.35

• Date: June 26, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clayton Kershaw - Dodgers
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies

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