Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Pick – 6/25/2025

As the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers prepare for their matchup on June 25, 2025, the stakes are low for the Rockies, who are languishing with an 18-61 record this season. That record places them firmly at the bottom of the National League West. The Dodgers, on the other hand, are enjoying a strong season at 49-31 and have been dominant thus far. Yesterday, the Rockies fell to the Dodgers, and they need a significant turnaround to remain competitive in this series.

Chase Dollander, the Rockies' projected starter, carries a lowly rank of 183rd among MLB starting pitchers, indicating he's struggled mightily this year. His projections suggest he’s likely to pitch only 4.3 innings while allowing 3.4 earned runs and striking out just 3.7 batters on average. This points to a challenging outing ahead against a potent Dodgers lineup.

On the opposing side, Los Angeles will send out Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is having a stellar season with a ranking of 8th among starting pitchers. Although he also faces challenges in terms of hits allowed, his ability to strike out 6.5 batters per game makes him a tough opponent for the Rockies’ batters. The projections show that Yamamoto is likely to pitch about 5.6 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs.

With a high Game Total of 11.0 runs, the betting lines reflect a clear division in expectations. The Rockies’ moneyline stands at +255, indicating they are significant underdogs, while the Dodgers are favored at -305. This matchup not only highlights the disparities in pitching but also the overall performance of both teams this season, setting the stage for another compelling game in what has been a lopsided series.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.8% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Coors Field — the #7 HR venue among all major league stadiums — today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Teoscar Hernandez is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Shohei Ohtani projects as the 2nd-best hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Chase Dollander has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 56.3% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Ryan McMahon's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 94.1-mph now compared to just 92-mph then.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Compared to their .324 overall projected rate, the .305 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order in this game suggests this version of the lineup a good deal a bit watered down.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 76 games (+12.12 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 57 games (+15.20 Units / 24% ROI)
• Max Muncy has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.20 Units / 29% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 7.65, Colorado Rockies 4.79

• Date: June 25, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers
  • Chase Dollander - Rockies

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