Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction – 5/28/2025

The Cleveland Guardians will host the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 28, 2025, in a highly anticipated interleague matchup. In their previous game, the Guardians fell to the Dodgers by a score of 9-5, marking their second consecutive loss, while the Dodgers are riding high after that win. Currently, the Guardians sit at 3rd in the American League Central with a record of 29-25, and the Dodgers are 2nd in the National League West at 34-21, showcasing their strong start to the season.

The Guardians are projected to start Jakob Junis, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled this season, ranking as the 268th best starter in MLB according to advanced stats. Junis has a 4.38 ERA but a concerning 5.64 xERA, indicating he may be due for more struggles. He projects to pitch only 2.9 innings today, allowing 1.8 earned runs, which could put the Guardians at a disadvantage against a potent Dodgers lineup.

On the other side, the Dodgers will send out Clayton Kershaw, who is considered an average pitcher this year with a 7.50 ERA. However, his 5.52 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may improve. Kershaw has a solid projection of 5.3 innings pitched and is expected to allow 2.2 earned runs.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 24th in MLB, struggling to generate runs, while the Dodgers boast the 2nd best offense, leading in team batting average and ranking 2nd in home runs. Given the Guardians' low offensive ranks and the batting prowess of the Dodgers, the projections favor Los Angeles, who has an implied team total of 5.14 runs compared to Cleveland's 4.36 runs. With the Guardians' current form and the strength of the Dodgers’ lineup, this game looks to be a tough challenge for Cleveland.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Out of all SPs, Clayton Kershaw's fastball velocity of 89.7 mph ranks in the 5th percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Shohei Ohtani has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 102.2-mph average to last year's 99-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Mookie Betts hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 8th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Given that groundball hitters struggle against groundball pitchers, Jakob Junis (33.3% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 4 GB hitters in the opposing team's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme groundball batters like Jose Ramirez tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Clayton Kershaw.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Austin Hedges, the Guardians's expected catcher today, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.35 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 46 games (+4.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• Andy Pages has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.20 Units / 78% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.94, Cleveland Guardians 3.8

• Date: May 28, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clayton Kershaw - Dodgers
  • Jakob Junis - Guardians

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