Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Picks 5/24/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 24, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • James Paxton - Dodgers
  • Graham Ashcraft - Reds

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds will face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 24, 2024, at Great American Ball Park. As the home team, the Reds will be looking to turn their season around, despite their current record of 20-30. On the other hand, the Dodgers have been dominant this season with a record of 33-19. This National League matchup promises an exciting game between two teams with contrasting performances.

The Reds are projected to start right-handed pitcher Graham Ashcraft, who has had an average season so far. In contrast, the Dodgers will send left-handed pitcher James Paxton to the mound. Paxton has been one of the worst pitchers in MLB this season, despite his impressive win-loss record of 5-0 and a low ERA of 2.84.

In their last game, the Reds faced the Padres and suffered a 6-4 loss. The Dodgers, on the other hand, were shut out 6-0 by the D-Backs. The Reds' offense ranks as the 28th best in MLB, while the Dodgers' offense is ranked second. However, the Reds excel in stolen bases, ranking first in the league.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Ashcraft is an average starting pitcher, while Paxton has struggled. Ashcraft is projected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 3.4 earned runs. He is also expected to strike out around 3.8 batters and allow 6.3 hits and 1.9 walks. Paxton, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.0 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs. He is expected to strike out around 4.5 batters but allow 5.4 hits and 2.2 walks.

Despite the Dodgers' strong performance this season, THE BAT X projects the Reds to have a win probability of 45%, suggesting a close game. The Dodgers, with a win probability of 55%, are still favored according to the projections. However, there may be value in betting on the Reds as they are considered an underdog.

With the game total set at 10.0 runs, it is expected to be a high-scoring affair. The Reds have a high implied team total of 4.47 runs, while the Dodgers have an even higher implied team total of 5.53 runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

James Paxton has a mean projection of 14.9 outs in today's game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Jason Heyward's speed has dropped off this year. His 27.11 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 23.85 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The 9.2% Barrel% of the Los Angeles Dodgers ranks them as the #5 club in the league since the start of last season by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Graham Ashcraft's higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (20.9 compared to 9.6% last season) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Mike Ford has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 33.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit lower than his 44.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

In today's game, Will Benson is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.7% rate (97th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 13 games at home (+11.20 Units / 67% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 42 games (+7.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• Andy Pages has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.50 Units / 38% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 6.12 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.29

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