Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Pick – 7/28/2025
The Los Angeles Dodgers will travel to Cincinnati on Monday night to open their three‑game series against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. The Dodgers have a better record going into this series opener. But the Reds have been playing better baseball recently and will look to upset the Dodgers here. Before the action begins in Cincinnati, continue reading to get my Dodgers vs Reds prediction in the betting markets.
Our Dodgers vs Reds Pick
- Pick: Dodgers -1.5
- Confidence: ★★☆☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds
- Date & Time: Monday, July 28, 2025, 7:10 p.m. EDT
- Starting Pitchers:
- Dodgers – Yoshinobu Yamamoto (8–7, 2.55 ERA)
- Reds – Chase Burns (0–2, 6.65 ERA)
- Stadium: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
- Broadcast: FDSOH and SportsNet LA
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Yoshinobu Yamamoto continues to be a force on the mound for the Dodgers. He has allowed one run or fewer in four of his past five starts. Yamamoto is currently sporting a 2.55 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with over 10 strikeouts per 9 innings. This is his first start against the Reds this year.
Reds rookie Chase Burns has flashed elite swing‑and‑miss stuff. He is striking out 35% of batters faced and has notched 10 strikeouts in each of his last two outings. But inconsistency has haunted Burns this year. He has posted a 6.65 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in just five starts. He most recently allowed five earned runs in 5.2 innings of work against the Washington Nationals and will look to bounce back against an elite Dodgers offense.
Key Players
- Shohei Ohtani is always going to be the key to the Dodgers’ lineup. He has 38 home runs and 71 RBI to lead the Dodgers in both categories.
- Will Smith leads the Dodgers with a .324 average and is regularly on-base to set up scoring chances for the big bats in Los Angeles.
- Elly De La Cruz leads the Reds in batting average, home runs, and RBI in 2025. He will need to be dangerous for the Reds to have a chance against the mighty Dodgers.
Recent team streaks
- The Dodgers have lost two games in a row coming into this series. They lost their most recent series against the Boston Red Sox on the road.
- The Reds have won four games in a row. They earned a three-game sweep against the Tampa Bay Rays thanks to some incredible pitching over those three games.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Over 6.5 Strikeouts |
| Elly De La Cruz | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first of three games between the Dodgers and Reds to be played this season.
- The Dodgers are 26-24 on the road this year.
- Cincinnati has gone 31-22 at home for the year.
- The Dodgers are 46-60 on the runline this year. Their 43.4% runline win percentage is the fifth-lowest in MLB.
- Cincinnati is 57-49 this season on the runline. Their 53.8% win rate is eighth-best in baseball.
Dodgers vs Reds Model Projection
Score Projection: Dodgers 5 – Reds 2
Win Probability: Dodgers 68%, Reds 32%
Final Thoughts
The Dodgers have been struggling a bit coming into this game. But they have one of the best pitchers in baseball on the mound against a struggling rookie. I’ll go with Yamamoto to deliver in this contest and for the Dodgers to cover the runline on the road.
