Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 4/23/2025

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to face the Los Angeles Dodgers on April 23, 2025, they enter the game fresh off a thrilling 11-10 victory that showcases their high-octane offense. Both teams have been performing well this season, with the Cubs holding a record of 15-10 and the Dodgers slightly ahead at 16-8. This matchup is particularly intriguing as it features the 2nd-best offense in Major League Baseball this season, according to projections, facing a Dodgers lineup that ranks 10th overall.

Starting for the Cubs is Matthew Boyd, who has produced a solid 2.01 ERA so far, ranking him 52nd among starting pitchers in MLB. However, despite his impressive surface stats, Boyd's 4.54 xFIP suggests he may not be as invincible as his ERA indicates. Typically a high-flyball pitcher, he will be tested against the powerful Dodgers offense, which has already hit 39 home runs this season—ranking 2nd in the league.

Noah Davis, getting the nod for the Dodgers, has struggled recently. The projections suggest he may only last about 3.1 innings today, which underscores concerns about his ability to keep the Cubs' offensive firepower in check. His last outing yielded 4 earned runs in just 4 innings, raising questions about his effectiveness in this crucial tilt.

With both teams ranked 2nd and 10th in offense respectively, the Cubs’ ability to capitalize on Boyd's performance and exploit Davis's struggles could be the key to a successful outing. Bettors should note that the current Game Total is set high at 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a slugfest at Wrigley Field. Despite the even moneyline set at -110 for both sides, the Cubs appear primed to leverage their home-field advantage and offensive prowess, positioning them as a team to watch.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Among all starting pitchers, Noah Davis's fastball spin rate of 2385 rpm is in the 79th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In the past week, Will Smith's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.8% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order projects as the strongest on the slate in terms of overall batting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Matthew Boyd is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #21 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

This season, Carson Kelly has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 99.7 mph compared to last year's 91.4 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Chicago's 92.9-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #9 group of hitters in the league this year by this metric.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.55 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.65 Units / 26% ROI)
• Enrique Hernandez has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 20 away games (+7.10 Units / 35% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.91, Chicago Cubs 5.17

• Date: April 23, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Noah Davis - Dodgers
  • Matthew Boyd - Cubs

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