Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/14/2024

• Date: September 14, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Flaherty - Dodgers
  • Chris Sale - Braves

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

On September 14, 2024, the Atlanta Braves will welcome the Los Angeles Dodgers to Truist Park for the second game of their series. Both teams are in strong form; the Dodgers are leading their division with an impressive record of 87-60, while the Braves, sitting at 80-67, are having an above-average season. The stakes are high, as each team is vying for top positioning in the lead-up to the postseason.

In yesterday's matchup, the Braves showcased their offensive power, getting a 6-2 win at home. Flaherty holds a solid 12-6 record and an impressive 2.86 ERA this year. However, he faces a challenging test against Braves lefty Chris Sale, who is ranked as the 9th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Sale boasts a fantastic 16-3 record and a remarkable 2.38 ERA this season, making him the elite option on the mound.

Offensively, the Dodgers feature the 2nd best lineup in MLB, complemented by a strong team batting average of .281. They are expected to challenge Sale, especially with their ability to draw walks. On the other hand, while the Braves’ offense ranks 15th overall, they excel in power, sitting at 5th for home runs this season.

The projections indicate that the Braves will score an average of 3.93 runs, while the Dodgers are projected to score lower at 3.57 runs. This dynamic could favor Atlanta, especially given the strength of Sale against a Dodgers offense that might struggle to exploit his low walk rate. Ultimately, while the odds suggest a closely contested game, the Braves may have the edge with their elite pitcher and home-field advantage.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Jack Flaherty has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing an additional 6.2 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Tommy Edman has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .347 rate is quite a bit higher than his .270 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The best projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Chris Sale has gone to his four-seam fastball 5.2% less often this season (37.9%) than he did last year (43.1%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Michael Harris II is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Atlanta Braves hitters as a group place 2nd- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 9.9% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• Chris Sale has hit the Strikeouts Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+9.85 Units / 29% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.62 vs Atlanta Braves 4.31

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.