Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Preview – 9/15/2024

• Date: September 15, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Walker Buehler - Dodgers
  • Charlie Morton - Braves

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 15, 2024, both teams find themselves in the thick of a competitive stretch. The Braves currently sit with an 81-67 record, reflecting an above-average season, while the Dodgers boast a strong 87-61 mark, showcasing their dominance. This matchup is critical for the Braves as they look to solidify their Wild Card position.

In their last game, the Braves faced off against the Dodgers, where they managed to pull off a blowout victory, further intensifying the rivalry. Charlie Morton is projected to take the mound for Atlanta, coming off a season where he has started 27 games with an 8-8 record and a 4.11 ERA. While Morton ranks as an average pitcher overall, he excels at inducing ground balls, boasting a 48% ground ball rate. This could be advantageous against a powerful Dodgers lineup that has hit 196 home runs this season—ranked 3rd in MLB.

On the other hand, Los Angeles will counter with Walker Buehler, who has struggled this year with a 1-5 record and an alarming 5.95 ERA over just 13 starts. Buehler's peripherals suggest he might have been unlucky, but his recent form raises concerns, especially against a Braves offense that ranks 13th overall and 5th in home runs.

The projections lean slightly in favor of the Dodgers, who are expected to score around 5.43 runs compared to the Braves' 4.78. However, with the Braves' recent victory and Morton’s ground ball tendencies, this game is shaping up to be another tightly contested battle. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring affair, but expect both pitchers to have a significant impact on the outcome.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Walker Buehler's 94.6-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 81st percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Will Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (90% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense projects as the strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Charlie Morton has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 5.9 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Olson stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.43 vs Atlanta Braves 4.78

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