Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 8/31/2024

• Date: August 31, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gavin Stone - Dodgers
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 31, 2024, they find themselves in a pivotal matchup in the National League West. The Diamondbacks, boasting a record of 76-59, look to close the gap on the division-leading Dodgers, who stand at 81-54. With the postseason looming, this series could have significant implications for both teams.

In their last game, the Diamondbacks fell short, while the Dodgers secured a win, continuing their strong season. Merrill Kelly, projected to start for Arizona, has been a reliable presence on the mound, holding a perfect 4-0 record this year. Although his ERA of 3.98 indicates solid performance, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for some regression, with a 5.18 xERA indicating he has been somewhat fortunate.

On the other side, Gavin Stone is set to take the hill for the Dodgers. With an impressive 11-5 record and a stellar 3.33 ERA, Stone has proven to be a valuable asset for Los Angeles. However, like Kelly, his projections indicate he might also face challenges, particularly against a powerful Diamondbacks offense that ranks 2nd in MLB this season.

The projections suggest a competitive game, with the Diamondbacks expected to score around 4.88 runs, while the Dodgers are projected for approximately 5.76 runs. Given that the Dodgers' offense ranks 3rd in home runs and is facing a high-flyball pitcher in Kelly, they could capitalize on any mistakes. As the stakes rise in this series, fans can expect an exciting clash between two teams vying for supremacy in the division.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Stone to throw 83 pitches in today's game (9th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

There has been a decrease in Miguel Rojas's average exit velocity this season, from 87.3 mph last year to 84.7 mph now

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen ranks as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Merrill Kelly has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 8.8% more often this season (66.6%) than he did last season (57.8%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Joc Pederson's true offensive skill to be a .354, implying that he has been very fortunate this year given the .049 deviation between that mark and his actual .403 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Joc Pederson pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 98 games (+22.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 61 games (+8.70 Units / 13% ROI)
• Gavin Lux has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+11.80 Units / 25% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.77 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.89

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