Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 8/30/2024

• Date: August 30, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clayton Kershaw - Dodgers
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 30, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race in the National League West. The Dodgers currently lead the division with an 80-54 record, while the Diamondbacks sit at 76-58. This matchup could prove crucial as both teams jockey for playoff positioning.

The Diamondbacks are coming off a loss to the New York Mets, while the Dodgers had an impressive outing against the Baltimore Orioles. This sets a challenging narrative for the Diamondbacks, who are projected to start Zac Gallen. Gallen, ranked 34th among MLB pitchers, has had a solid season with a 10-6 record and an ERA of 3.65. However, his projections indicate potential struggles, notably with allowing 5.5 hits and 1.7 walks per game, which could become problematic against a strong Dodgers lineup.

Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw, despite his 2-2 record this season, has shown signs of luck working in his favor, as his 2.89 FIP suggests he may perform better than his ERA of 3.72 indicates. The projections suggest he could limit the Diamondbacks to just 2.3 earned runs, which is above average.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks boast the 2nd best lineup in MLB, while the Dodgers aren't far off, ranking 4th. Though the Diamondbacks rank 7th in batting average, their struggles with power are evident, as they sit at 16th in home runs. In contrast, the Dodgers rank 3rd in that category. With a Game Total set at an average of 8.5 runs, this matchup promises to be closely contested, but the Dodgers' recent form and Kershaw's elite capability on the mound give them a slight edge entering the game.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The Arizona Diamondbacks have 7 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Clayton Kershaw in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Miguel Rojas has been lucky this year, posting a .321 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .282 — a .039 disparity.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Max Muncy pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen was rolling in his last GS and gave up 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Corbin Carroll has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (82% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Arizona Diamondbacks today owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .305, which is significantly lower than their actual wOBA of .331 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 86 games (+21.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 29 games (+7.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+11.35 Units / 62% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.17 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.08

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