Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 5/11/2025

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 11, 2025, they find themselves in a crucial National League West matchup. Currently, the Diamondbacks hold a record of 21-19, showcasing an above-average season, while the Dodgers boast a strong 26-14 record, marking them as one of the top teams in baseball. In their previous matchup, the Diamondbacks emerged victorious, a victory they will look to build on today.

On the mound, Zac Gallen is projected to start for Arizona. He has had a mixed season thus far, with a 3-4 record and a 4.37 ERA, indicating average performance. However, his 3.62 xERA suggests he has faced some bad luck and could improve moving forward. Gallen's propensity for allowing fly balls (42% FB rate) may be a concern, especially against a powerful Dodgers lineup that has hit 62 home runs this season, ranking 2nd in MLB.

Tony Gonsolin, starting for Los Angeles, has a 1-0 record in just two starts this year, with a solid 4.09 ERA. His low walk rate (4.6 BB%) could be a crucial factor against the Diamondbacks' patient offense, which leads the league in drawing walks. However, Gonsolin's 52% FB rate also puts him at risk against the Diamondbacks’ potent lineup, which ranks 4th in MLB with 54 home runs.

Despite the Dodgers' impressive offensive rankings—2nd overall in MLB—the Diamondbacks' offense is not far behind, ranking 4th. With both teams projected to score around 4.75 runs, this matchup promises to be a competitive affair, especially with Gallen's ability to bounce back and the potential for Gonsolin to struggle against a high-powered offense.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Due to his reverse platoon split, Tony Gonsolin will benefit from facing 6 batters in the projected batting order who hit from the other side in today's matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Shohei Ohtani has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 103.2-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 96.8-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order profiles as the best of all teams today in terms of overall offensive skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen's fastball velocity has fallen 1.3 mph this season (92.5 mph) below where it was last season (93.8 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme flyball batters like Eugenio Suarez generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Tony Gonsolin.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Arizona's 90.2-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in Major League Baseball: #4 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.90 Units / 52% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• Michael Conforto has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+8.60 Units / 30% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.83, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.78

• Date: May 11, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tony Gonsolin - Dodgers
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.