Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals Pick For 4/23/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals Overview

• Date: April 23, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • James Paxton - Dodgers
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals
• Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 -130, Nationals 1.5 110
• Money Line: Dodgers -205, Nationals 175
• Total (Over/Under): 10

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Los Angeles Dodgers - 65%
• Washington Nationals - 35%

Projected Win %:

• Los Angeles Dodgers - 62.54%
• Washington Nationals - 37.46%

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League matchup scheduled for April 23, 2024, the Washington Nationals will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Nationals Park. The Nationals, with a record of 10-11 this season, are having a below-average season, while the Dodgers boast a 13-11 record, indicating an above-average performance.

The Nationals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Patrick Corbin, who has struggled this year with an ERA of 8.06. However, his 4.20 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. On the other side, the Dodgers are projected to start left-handed pitcher James Paxton, who has been solid with a 2.81 ERA. However, his 6.08 xFIP indicates that he may regress in future outings.

This is the first game in the series between these two teams, and both will be looking to start it off on a positive note. The Nationals' offense ranks as the 18th best in MLB, while the Dodgers boast the 4th best offense. The Dodgers have been particularly impressive in terms of home runs, ranking 2nd in the league.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Nationals rank 28th, while the Dodgers rank 6th according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that the Dodgers may have an advantage in the later innings.

Based on the current odds, the Nationals are considered big underdogs with a moneyline of +175, giving them an implied win probability of 35%. In contrast, the Dodgers are heavy favorites with a moneyline of -205, implying a win probability of 65%.

The Nationals will need a strong performance from their offense to overcome the powerful Dodgers' lineup. However, the Nationals' lack of power may work in their favor against James Paxton, who relies on inducing ground balls. Additionally, the Nationals' ability to limit strikeouts may neutralize one of Paxton's strengths.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Among all the teams on the slate today, the 4th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Freddie Freeman will probably have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Teoscar Hernandez has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Patrick Corbin will wring up 3.7 strikeouts today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Joey Gallo's batting average ability is projected to be in the 0th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Riley Adams (the Nationals's expected catcher in today's game) profiles as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 138 games (+17.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 65 away games (+16.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• Nick Senzel has hit the Singles Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+2.05 Units / 41% ROI)

Dodgers vs Nationals Prediction: Dodgers 5.96 - Nationals 4.32

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