Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals Best Bet – 4/25/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals Overview

• Date: April 25, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
• Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 -120, Nationals 1.5 100
• Money Line: Dodgers -195, Nationals 170
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Los Angeles Dodgers - 64%
• Washington Nationals - 36%

Projected Win %:

• Los Angeles Dodgers - 68.27%
• Washington Nationals - 31.73%

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League matchup, the Washington Nationals are set to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on April 25, 2024, at Nationals Park. The Nationals, with a season record of 10-13, are having a tough season, while the Dodgers, boasting a 15-11 record, are having a great one.

On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start left-handed pitcher MacKenzie Gore, who has a 2-1 win/loss record and a 3.60 ERA this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Gore is ranked as the #46 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his overall skill and potential.

Opposing Gore will be right-handed pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers. Yamamoto, with a 1-1 record and a 4.50 ERA, is ranked as the #9 best starting pitcher in MLB. He is considered an elite pitcher based on our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

The Nationals offense ranks as the #16 best in MLB this season, showcasing average talent. However, they have excelled in team batting average, ranking #6 in MLB. On the other hand, their team home run ranking is quite low at #29. The Dodgers offense is one of the best in MLB, ranking #2 overall and #2 in team home runs.

Looking at the projected statistics, Gore is expected to pitch an average of 4.9 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, striking out 5.5 batters, but also giving up 4.2 hits and 2.6 walks on average. Yamamoto, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 5.8 innings, allowing 1.9 earned runs, striking out 6.2 batters, but also surrendering 4.7 hits and 1.5 walks on average.

In terms of the betting odds, the Nationals are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +165 and an implied win probability of 37%. The Dodgers, on the other hand, are the favorites with a moneyline of -190 and an implied win probability of 63%.

In this matchup, the Nationals will face the challenge of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, an elite pitcher known for his high strikeout rate. However, the Nationals' ability to make contact and avoid strikeouts may give them an advantage. The Dodgers, with their potent offense, will aim to capitalize on their power hitting against MacKenzie Gore.

With the Nationals looking to turn their season around and the Dodgers aiming to maintain their strong performance, this game promises an exciting clash between two teams with different strengths and weaknesses.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has averaged 13.2 outs per game per started this year, grading out in the 15th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

The Washington Nationals don't have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Freddie Freeman is certain to never face a bullpen mismatch the entire game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen projects as the 6th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. MacKenzie Gore has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.1% more often this season (45.6%) than he did last season (40.5%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Gallo in the 0th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Joey Gallo pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.2% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 89 games (+20.15 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 58 away games (+16.05 Units / 21% ROI)

Dodgers vs Nationals Prediction: Dodgers 5.14 - Nationals 3.23

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