Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals Pick & Prediction – 8/18/2024

• Date: August 18, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clayton Kershaw - Dodgers
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 18, 2024, both teams are looking to assert themselves in this pivotal matchup. The Dodgers, currently boasting a solid 72-52 record, are riding high after a recent string of victories. In contrast, the Cardinals sit at 61-62, struggling to find consistency this season, though they did beat the Dodgers yesterday.

Sonny Gray, projected to start for St. Louis, has had a respectable year, with an 11-7 record and a solid 3.93 ERA. However, his underlying metrics suggest he might be due for better luck; his 2.73 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky this season. Gray's low walk rate (5.9 BB%) will be tested against a Dodgers lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB for drawing walks. On the other hand, Clayton Kershaw, despite only starting four games this year, has shown flashes of brilliance with a 3.50 ERA. However, his 4.05 xFIP indicates he may have benefitted from some good fortune.

Offensively, the Dodgers rank 5th in MLB, showcasing a potent lineup that includes significant power, ranking 3rd in home runs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals' offense lags behind at 20th, struggling to find rhythm and production. Recent performances have seen Alec Burleson emerge as St. Louis' best hitter over the last week, but the overall offensive output leaves much to be desired.

With the Game Total set at an average 8.0 runs, betting markets are leaning slightly towards the Dodgers, who have a current moneyline of -120, suggesting a close contest. The Cardinals' moneyline of +100 reflects their potential to pull off an upset, especially if Gray can effectively neutralize the Dodgers' patient approach at the plate. This game is crucial for both teams as they strive to improve their standings and bolster their chances as the season winds down.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The St. Louis Cardinals have 7 bats in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Clayton Kershaw in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

St. Louis's #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Gavin Lux, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Mookie Betts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Sonny Gray's 2536-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 96th percentile out of all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Brendan Donovan is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 21% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 37 games (+5.25 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 55 games (+5.70 Units / 9% ROI)
• Gavin Lux has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.55 Units / 39% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.3 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.09

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