Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals Pick & Prediction – 8/17/2024

• Date: August 17, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bobby Miller - Dodgers
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On August 17, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Los Angeles Dodgers in the second game of their series at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals, currently sitting at 60-62, are having an average season, while the Dodgers, boasting a record of 72-51, are enjoying a great year. In their previous matchup on August 16, the Cardinals narrowly lost to the Dodgers by a score of 7-6, a game that showcased the competitiveness of both teams.

Andre Pallante is projected to take the mound for the Cardinals, and he has shown signs of improvement recently, despite a Win/Loss record of 4-6 and an ERA of 4.21 this season. Pallante's 3.68 xERA indicates he may have been unlucky, suggesting he could perform better moving forward. He is a high-groundball pitcher with a 63% groundball rate, which could work to his advantage against a powerful Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB with 139 home runs this season.

Bobby Miller will start for the Dodgers, but his 8.07 ERA raises concerns. Although Miller has only started 7 games this year with a 1-2 record, projections indicate he may also improve, as evidenced by his xFIP of 4.64. However, both pitchers are expected to allow a significant number of hits, which could lead to a high-scoring affair, as the Game Total is set at 9.0 runs.

From a betting perspective, the Cardinals are currently underdogs with a moneyline of +130, while the Dodgers are favored at -150. Interestingly, the projections suggest a closer contest than the betting lines indicate, with the Cardinals expected to score 4.61 runs, compared to the Dodgers’ projected 5.02 runs. This discrepancy may present an opportunity for savvy bettors looking to capitalize on perceived value with the Cardinals.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Miguel Rojas's average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 87.3-mph mark last year has decreased to 84.4-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Mookie Betts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Andre Pallante (60% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in Los Angeles's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

When it comes to his home runs, Alec Burleson has had some very good luck this year. His 27.1 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.5.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 20.3% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+7.00 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.70 Units / 38% ROI)
• Gavin Lux has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+14.40 Units / 37% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.02 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.61

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