Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants Pick & Prediction – 6/30/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: June 30, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • James Paxton - Dodgers
  • Spencer Bivens - Giants

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants will host the Los Angeles Dodgers in the third game of their series on June 30, 2024, at Oracle Park. The Giants are currently sitting at 40-44, having a below-average season, while the Dodgers are shining with a 52-32 record. This National League West matchup brings significant stakes, especially given the Dodgers' strong playoff aspirations.

In their last game on June 29, the Dodgers trounced the Giants 14-7, reinforcing their status as one of the best teams in MLB this season. The Dodgers' offense, ranked 2nd, showed its prowess with Shohei Ohtani leading the pack. Ohtani has been on fire, hitting .313 with three home runs and a 1.375 OPS over the last week. Ohtani's season-long performance has been nothing short of spectacular, boasting a .321 batting average, 26 home runs, and a 1.050 OPS.

The Giants will counter with Spencer Bivens, who has had a mix of starts and bullpen appearances this year. Despite his solid 3.00 ERA, Bivens's peripheral stats like a 4.96 xERA indicate some luck, suggesting potential regression. His high-flyball rate (43%) and tendency to issue walks (11.1% BB) could be a recipe for trouble against the Dodgers' power-heavy lineup, which ranks 3rd in home runs and 2nd in walks.

On the mound for the Dodgers is James Paxton. While his 3.39 ERA looks promising, his 5.16 xFIP suggests he has also been fortunate. Paxton’s projections for this game include 5.2 innings pitched and 2.9 earned runs allowed, which are mediocre figures.

Offensively, the Giants have been average, with their lineup ranking 15th overall. Matt Chapman has been their standout, especially over the past week, hitting .346 with two home runs and a 1.087 OPS. Despite this, the Giants' offense might struggle against the Dodgers' 8th-ranked bullpen.

Betting markets suggest a close game, with the Giants at +110 and the Dodgers at -130. Both teams are expected to score a decent number of runs, with implied team totals of 4.29 for the Giants and 4.71 for the Dodgers. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns with this, giving the Dodgers a slight edge with a 54% win probability. Given the Giants' recent struggles and the Dodgers' firepower, Los Angeles seems primed to take this series finale.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

James Paxton's higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (62.7 compared to 57.3% last year) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Shohei Ohtani has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 99.2-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 95.2-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Cavan Biggio, Teoscar Hernandez, Andy Pages).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

In his previous start, Spencer Bivens wasn't on when it came to striking batters out and only managed to tally 1 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Tyler Fitzgerald has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His .320 mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .256.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 47 games (+13.45 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• James Paxton has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+5.55 Units / 37% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.33 vs San Francisco Giants 4.62

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