Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants Pick & Prediction – 6/29/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: June 29, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers
  • Spencer Howard - Giants

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

On June 29, 2024, the San Francisco Giants will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Oracle Park for the second game of their series. The Giants, who recently edged out the Dodgers with a 5-3 victory, will look to carry that momentum forward despite their challenging season. At 40-43, the Giants have struggled, while the Dodgers, sitting at 51-32, are having an excellent year. This National League West matchup features two teams in starkly different positions.

The Giants will send Spencer Howard to the mound. Howard, a right-hander, has had a tough season, ranking 283rd among MLB starting pitchers. Despite his respectable 3.80 ERA, his 4.61 xFIP suggests he's been fortunate and could regress. Howard's projections for today are bleak, with an expected 4.2 innings pitched and 2.4 earned runs allowed. Furthermore, his high flyball rate (43%) against a powerful Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in home runs could spell trouble.

On the other side, the Dodgers will counter with Tyler Glasnow, who has been nothing short of stellar. Ranked as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB, Glasnow boasts an impressive 2.88 ERA and a 2.30 xFIP, indicating he's been somewhat unlucky. His recent performance on June 22, where he pitched 7 innings with 10 strikeouts and only 1 earned run, underscores his dominance. Projections have him pitching 5.6 innings with 2.0 earned runs and 7.3 strikeouts today.

Offensively, the Dodgers have a significant edge. They rank 1st in MLB overall, 4th in batting average, and 3rd in home runs. Shohei Ohtani, their best hitter, has been on fire, especially over the last week, with a .313 batting average and 3 home runs. In contrast, the Giants' offense is average, ranking 15th overall, and they struggle with speed, ranking last in stolen bases.

The Giants' bullpen, however, is a bright spot, ranking 1st in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, compared to the Dodgers' 8th-ranked bullpen. This could be a crucial factor late in the game, especially if Howard struggles early.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Dodgers are favored with a 63% win probability, while the Giants are a significant underdog at 37%. The betting odds reflect this, with the Dodgers at -215 and the Giants at +185. Despite the Giants' recent victory, the projections suggest the Dodgers have a strong chance to bounce back and secure a win in this matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Tyler Glasnow has posted a 35.9% strikeout rate this year, ranking in the 99th percentile.

• One of the best indicators of future strikeouts is past strikeouts.

In the last week, Jason Heyward's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Cavan Biggio, Andy Pages, Teoscar Hernandez).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

LaMonte Wade Jr. has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.7-mph average to last year's 88.3-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games (+10.45 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+8.00 Units / 23% ROI)
• Andy Pages has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+7.75 Units / 26% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.86 vs San Francisco Giants 3.59

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