Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres Pick For 7/30/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: July 30, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers
  • Matt Waldron - Padres

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

On July 30, 2024, the San Diego Padres will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Petco Park in a key National League West matchup. The Dodgers are having a great season with a 63-44 record, holding a slight edge over the Padres, who are also performing well with a 57-51 mark. This game represents the first in a series between these division rivals.

The Padres will send right-hander Matt Waldron to the mound. Waldron, who has started 21 games this season, holds a 6-9 record with a 3.64 ERA. However, the advanced stats from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggest he may have been a bit lucky, as indicated by his 4.23 xFIP. Waldron is projected to pitch 5.3 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs, while striking out 5.0 batters. His high-flyball tendencies (38 FB%) could be problematic against the power-packed Dodgers lineup, which ranks 3rd in MLB with 139 home runs.

On the other side, Tyler Glasnow, the Dodgers' ace, will take the hill. Glasnow has been exceptional this season with an 8-6 record and a 3.47 ERA across 19 starts. Despite this, his 2.60 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and could perform even better. Glasnow is expected to pitch 5.6 innings, allow 2.2 earned runs, and strike out 6.1 batters. He'll face a Padres offense that boasts the 1st best team batting average in MLB and ranks 10th in home runs.

Offensively, Xander Bogaerts has been red-hot for the Padres over the last week, hitting .583 with a 1.532 OPS, 14 hits, 7 runs, 4 RBIs, and 1 home run in 6 games. Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ Gavin Lux has also been impressive, posting a .500 average with a 1.432 OPS, 8 hits, 4 runs, 5 RBIs, and 1 home run over the past week.

The Padres will rely on their 6th-ranked bullpen, while the Dodgers counter with their 4th-ranked bullpen, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. With the game total set at a low 7.5 runs, expect a tightly contested showdown between these two high-powered teams. The Padres find themselves as underdogs with a moneyline of +120, offering some intriguing value for bettors.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Among all starters, Tyler Glasnow's fastball spin rate of 2553 rpm grades out in the 97th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Shohei Ohtani has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.5-mph to 101.9-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

James Outman pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 6th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Throwing 91.7 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Matt Waldron places him the 76th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jurickson Profar's true offensive talent to be a .321, suggesting that he has been very fortunate this year given the .059 deviation between that mark and his actual .380 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Projected catcher Kyle Higashioka profiles as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+8.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 46 away games (+4.25 Units / 8% ROI)
• Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+10.60 Units / 23% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.61 vs San Diego Padres 3.91

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