Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction For 6/4/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 4, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers
  • Jared Jones - Pirates

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

PNC Park, home of the Pittsburgh Pirates, is set to host an exciting National League matchup on June 4, 2024. The Pirates, currently having a below-average season with a record of 27-32, will be the home team. On the other hand, the Los Angeles Dodgers, having a great season with a record of 38-23, will be the away team.

The Pirates are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jared Jones, who has a 3-5 win/loss record this season and an ERA of 3.55, indicating solid performance. However, his 3.04 SIERA suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform even better going forward. Jones is considered the #83 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, making him above average.

Opposing Jones on the mound will be Tyler Glasnow, the Dodgers' right-handed pitcher. Glasnow boasts an impressive 6-3 win/loss record and a stellar 3.04 ERA. His 2.40 xERA suggests that he has been unlucky and is expected to perform even better in the future. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Glasnow is considered the #7 best starting pitcher in MLB, making him an elite performer.

In terms of offensive performance, the Pirates rank as the #28 best offense in MLB this season, showcasing their struggles at the plate. They rank #26 in team batting average and #23 in home runs, indicating a lack of power. However, they do hold an average ranking of #12 in stolen bases.

On the other hand, the Dodgers boast the #2 best offense in MLB, showcasing their offensive prowess. They rank #12 in team batting average and an impressive #2 in home runs. However, their ranking drops to #20 in stolen bases, indicating a relative weakness in that area.

Taking into consideration the projections, it is expected that Jared Jones will pitch around 4.9 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, striking out 4.7 batters, and giving up 5.2 hits and 1.5 walks. On the other side, Tyler Glasnow is projected to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs, striking out 7.0 batters, and giving up 4.6 hits and 1.7 walks.

With the Dodgers having a higher projected win probability and a strong offense, they enter this game as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -185, implying a win probability of 63%. The Pirates, considered the underdog, carry a moneyline of +160, suggesting a win probability of 37%. The implied team totals for today's game are 4.28 runs for the Dodgers and 3.22 runs for the Pirates.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Tyler Glasnow's 2555-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 98th percentile among all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Shohei Ohtani's 19.1% Barrel% (an advanced metric to study power) is in the 100th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The best projected offense of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Jones to throw 85 pitches in this game (6th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Rowdy Tellez's speed has improved this year. His 23.36 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.38 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

The 7.5% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates makes them the #23 group of hitters in the game since the start of last season by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+8.60 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 55% ROI)
• Mookie Betts has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 44 games (+14.15 Units / 32% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.32 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.89

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