Los Angeles Dodgers at Oakland Athletics Pick For 8/2/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: August 2, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gavin Stone - Dodgers
  • Joey Estes - Athletics

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

The Oakland Athletics will host the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 2, 2024, in what marks the first game of their interleague series. The Athletics are currently struggling this season with a record of 45-65, while the Dodgers boast a strong 63-46 record. With the Dodgers sitting comfortably in the playoff picture, this matchup is crucial as they continue to jockey for postseason positioning throughout the season.

The Athletics have been particularly cold lately, and their offensive struggles are evident, ranking 27th in team batting average. Despite being 19th in overall offensive rankings, their power is a bright spot, ranking 4th in home runs. However, they will need more consistency to challenge a potent Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in offensive rankings and 6th in batting average.

On the mound, the Athletics are projected to start Joey Estes, who has had a rough season with a 4-4 record and an ERA of 4.92. His xERA of 4.29 suggests some bad luck, but he faces a daunting task against a Dodgers offense that has already hit 139 home runs this season. Estes's high flyball rate (48% FB) could play into the hands of the Dodgers' powerful hitters. Conversely, the Dodgers will send Gavin Stone to the mound. With a solid record of 9-4 and an impressive 3.34 ERA, Stone has been a reliable option, although projections indicate he may be due for some regression.

The game total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting an average expectation for scoring. The Athletics, with a moneyline of +135, are seen as underdogs, while the Dodgers, favored at -155, are expected to put forth a strong offensive showing. Given the current form of both teams, the Athletics will need to find their stride quickly if they hope to compete in this matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Gavin Stone’s fastball velocity over his last 3 starts (95.2 mph) has been considerably faster than than his seasonal rate (94.2 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Jason Heyward has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Compared to their .338 overall projected rate, the .324 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order in this game suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit missing some of their usual firepower.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Joey Estes is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #30 HR venue in MLB in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Brent Rooker has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.6-mph average to last year's 94.9-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics' bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+8.20 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 24 games (+3.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 39 games (+10.80 Units / 19% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.79 vs Oakland Athletics 4.11

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