Los Angeles Dodgers at Oakland Athletics Best Bet – 8/4/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: August 4, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • River Ryan - Dodgers
  • Osvaldo Bido - Athletics

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Oakland Athletics host the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 4, 2024, both teams are looking to make a statement in this Interleague matchup. The Athletics, struggling this season with a record of 46-66, are well out of contention and currently rank 27th in team batting average. Meanwhile, the Dodgers stand at a solid 64-47, showcasing a powerful offense that ranks 4th in the league. In their last outing, the Dodgers pulled off an impressive win, further solidifying their playoff aspirations.

Osvaldo Bido is projected to take the mound for the Athletics. While he has shown moments of promise, he ranks 228th among MLB starting pitchers and has a 5.00 ERA this season. Bido's high-flyball rate (47% FB) could be a significant liability against the Dodgers' potent lineup, which has already hit 139 home runs this year. Additionally, his high walk rate (12.6 BB%) plays right into the Dodgers' hands, as they are one of the most patient offenses in the game.

On the other side, River Ryan will start for the Dodgers. With an impressive 0.82 ERA this season, Ryan is viewed as an average pitcher, but his ability to keep runs off the board could prove crucial. The projections suggest he might allow 2.1 earned runs today, which, while above average, still puts him in a favorable position against the Athletics' lineup.

Given the Athletics' below-average offensive stats and their struggles on the mound, the Dodgers enter this game as strong favorites. This matchup not only highlights the contrasting fortunes of both teams this season but also sets the stage for an exciting battle at Oakland Coliseum.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

River Ryan has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, throwing 23.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Gavin Lux is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

In today's game, Jason Heyward is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.1% rate (92nd percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Considering the 1.38 discrepancy between Osvaldo Bido's 5.56 ERA and his 4.18 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors since the start of last season and should positively regress going forward.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Brent Rooker has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.6-mph average to last season's 94.9-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Oakland Athletics have 5 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Max Schuemann, Seth Brown, Kyle McCann, Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 29 games (+9.75 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Lawrence Butler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.25 Units / 44% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.63 vs Oakland Athletics 4.04

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