Dodgers vs Yankees Game 4 Pick & Prediction – 10/29/2024

• Date: October 29, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Undecided - Dodgers
  • Luis Gil - Yankees

Dodgers vs Yankees Game 4 Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees Game 4 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees Game 4 Betting Preview

The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers continue their World Series matchup on October 29, 2024, at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees, currently ranked as the 3rd-best offense in MLB, will look to bounce back after a 4-2 loss to the Dodgers on October 28, one that put them in a 3-0 deficit in the series. Despite the loss, the Yankees remain favorites with a moneyline of -140, translating to an implied win probability of 56%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Yankees a slightly lower win probability at 51%, suggesting a tight contest.

On the mound, the Yankees will start Luis Gil, a right-hander with a 15-7 record and a respectable 3.50 ERA. Gil, however, has shown some vulnerability with a high-flyball tendency and control issues, which could be problematic against the Dodgers' potent lineup. The Dodgers, boasting the 1st-best offense in MLB, lead the league in home runs and are 2nd in drawing walks. This combination of power and patience could exploit Gil's tendencies.

The Dodgers have yet to decide on who will start this game on the mound. No matter who does get the ball to start things off, they will need to have control against the Yankees' patient lineup, which leads the league in walks.

The Dodgers' offensive firepower, led by Shohei Ohtani, who boasts a .305 batting average and a 1.021 OPS, will be a key factor in this matchup. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge leads the Yankees with a .309 batting average and a 1.118 OPS, underscoring the high stakes of this clash between two of the league's best offenses. Betting on the Dodgers might offer value, as the projections suggest their win probability is 5% higher than the betting market indicates.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen ranks as the 4th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Luis Gil in the 87th percentile among all SPs in the majors.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Aaron Judge as the 8th-best batter in the league as it relates to his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Gleyber Torres has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+16.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 112 games (+23.95 Units / 19% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the Home Runs Over in 16 of his last 48 games (+11.00 Units / 23% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees Game 4 Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.75 vs New York Yankees 4.58

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.