Dodgers vs Yankees Game 3 Best Bet – 10/28/2024

• Date: October 28, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Walker Buehler - Dodgers
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees

Dodgers vs Yankees Game 3 Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees Game 3 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees Game 3 Betting Preview

The New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers are set to face off in Game 3 of the World Series on October 28, 2024, at Yankee Stadium. This marks the third game of the series between two of baseball's most potent offenses, with the Dodgers heading to New York up 2-0. The Yankees, ranked 3rd, and the Dodgers, leading the pack at 1st, are both known for their power at the plate, with the Dodgers having clubbed the most home runs in MLB this season.

The Yankees have a projected win probability of 57%, making them the favorites for this matchup. They will send Clarke Schmidt to the mound, who's had a commendable season so far with a 2.85 ERA. Despite his impressive ERA, Schmidt's 3.92 xFIP suggests he has been riding a wave of luck, pointing to potential regression. Meanwhile, the Dodgers counter with Walker Buehler, whose 5.38 ERA indicates a struggling season. However, his xFIP of 4.49 suggests he may have been somewhat unlucky, hinting at potential improvement.

Both starting pitchers are projected to go 4.0 innings, with neither expected to dominate. Schmidt's high flyball rate could be a concern against the Dodgers' powerful lineup, which could exploit this to their advantage. The Yankees' bullpen, ranked 4th, and the Dodgers' at 2nd, will play significant roles, potentially making this a game decided in the late innings.

Bettors should be aware of the Yankees' strong offensive capabilities, which could capitalize on Buehler's vulnerabilities, while also considering the Dodgers' ability to exploit Schmidt's flyball tendencies. With both teams boasting top-tier offenses, expect an action-packed encounter in the Bronx.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

New York's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Max Muncy, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Max Muncy pulls many of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Out of every team playing today, the weakest infield defense is that of the the New York Yankees.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Alex Verdugo has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The New York Yankees (22.5% K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the most strikeout-prone lineup of all teams on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 72 games at home (+14.20 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 115 games (+24.85 Units / 20% ROI)
• Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+16.50 Units / 183% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees Game 3 Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.47 vs New York Yankees 4.82

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