Dodgers vs Mets Game 4 Prediction For 10/17/2024

• Date: October 17, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers
  • Jose Quintana - Mets

Dodgers vs Mets Game 4 Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Game 4 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Game 4 Betting Preview

As the calendar turns towards the high-stakes atmosphere of the postseason, the New York Mets are set to host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citi Field on October 17, 2024, in what promises to be a thrilling matchup in the National League Championship Series. The Mets, acting as the home team in this pivotal fourth game of the series, will look to level the playing field against the Dodgers, who hold a 2-1 series lead.

Jose Quintana takes the mound for New York, bringing in a season of mixed results with a 10-10 record and a respectable 3.75 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.44 suggests some luck may have played a part in that success, hinting at potential vulnerabilities against the Dodgers' potent lineup, which ranks 1st in MLB in team home runs with 246 long balls. Quintana's high groundball rate (48%) could be a critical factor in limiting the Dodgers' power, forcing them to rely less on their home-run capabilities.

On the flip side, the Dodgers counter with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, an elite right-hander ranked #12 in MLB starting pitchers. Yamamoto's 3.00 ERA and low walk rate give him an edge against the Mets, known for their patience at the plate. His groundball tendencies similarly aim to neutralize New York's 4th-ranked home run offense.

While the Dodgers boast the league's best offense, the Mets aren't far behind, claiming a strong 9th position in offensive power rankings. New York's ability to generate offense and capitalize on Yamamoto's projected average strikeout ability of 5.7 batters today could be a linchpin in their strategy.

In betting circles, the Dodgers are slight favorites with a moneyline of -130, reflecting a 54% implied win probability. New York, with an implied probability of 46% as per their moneyline of +110, will hope to leverage their home field advantage and even out the series. The game total is set at a modest 7.5 runs, suggesting a tightly contested affair, where strategic pitching duels may dictate the outcome.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a reverse platoon split and is stuck squaring off against 6 same-handed hitters today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Max Muncy has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (61% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the New York Mets.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Brandon Nimmo may have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Los Angeles Dodgers has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 109 games (+21.55 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 62 of their last 103 games (+22.25 Units / 20% ROI)
• Mookie Betts has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+9.05 Units / 24% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Game 4 Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.48 vs New York Mets 3.26

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