Los Angeles Dodgers at Minnesota Twins Pick For 4/10/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins Overview

• Date: April 10, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bobby Miller - Dodgers
  • Chris Paddack - Twins
• Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 -110, Twins 1.5 -110
• Money Line: Dodgers -180, Twins 155
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -120

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Los Angeles Dodgers - 62%
• Minnesota Twins - 38%

Projected Win %:

• Los Angeles Dodgers - 61.04%
• Minnesota Twins - 38.96%

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins Game Preview & Prediction

Heading into this game, the Twins have had a tough season so far, with a 3-6 record. On the other hand, the Dodgers have been dominant, boasting a 10-4 record and looking like a force to be reckoned with.

The starting pitchers for this game are projected to be Chris Paddack for the Twins and Bobby Miller for the Dodgers. Paddack is a right-handed pitcher, while Miller also throws right-handed.

This will be the third game in the series between these two teams. In their last games, the Twins played against an unknown team, while the Dodgers played against a different unknown team.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Paddack is considered an average starting pitcher, ranked at #104 out of approximately 350 pitchers. On the other hand, Miller is regarded as a great starting pitcher, ranking at #19.

Paddack has started one game this season, with a win/loss record of 0-0 and an ERA of 4.50, which is average. However, his xFIP of 5.46 suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could perform worse going forward.

Miller, on the other hand, has started two games, with a win/loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 5.87, which is below average. However, his xFIP of 1.63 indicates that he may have been unlucky and could perform better moving forward.

In terms of team performance, the Twins' offense ranks as the #28 best in MLB this season, while the Dodgers' offense is currently ranked #2. The Dodgers have been impressive in the power department, ranking #2 in team home runs, while the Twins' offense has struggled, ranking #24 in stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Twins are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +155 and an implied win probability of 38%. The Dodgers, with a moneyline of -175, are the favorites with an implied win probability of 62%.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

When it comes to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Bobby Miller in the 90th percentile among all starters in the game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Freddie Freeman as the 3rd-best hitter in the game as it relates to his batting average ability.

• Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Mookie Betts pulls many of his flyballs (37.6% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Out of every team playing today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the Minnesota Twins.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

In the past 14 days, Carlos Correa has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Minnesota Twins have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Willi Castro, Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.24 vs Minnesota Twins 3.89

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