Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers Prediction For 8/14/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: August 14, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Walker Buehler - Dodgers
  • Frankie Montas - Brewers

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 14, 2024, they find themselves in a crucial series against a strong opponent. Currently, the Brewers hold a record of 67-52, while the Dodgers sit at 71-49. This matchup carries significance as the Brewers look to solidify their position in the Wild Card race.

In their last game, the Brewers played well but ultimately fell short against the Dodgers, who have been riding a wave of success lately. Both teams are coming into this game with solid offensive rankings, with the Brewers boasting the 8th best offense in MLB and the Dodgers ranked 5th. However, the Brewers' offense has been inconsistent when it comes to generating home runs, ranking only 20th in that category.

On the mound, Frankie Montas takes the hill for the Brewers. Montas has had a rough season with a 5-8 record and an ERA of 5.10, but projections suggest he might be due for a better performance. He's facing a patient Dodgers lineup that leads MLB in drawing walks, which could play to the Dodgers' advantage, especially given Montas's high walk rate of 9.9%. On the other side, Walker Buehler makes his return for the Dodgers after a challenging season, as he holds a 1-4 record and a dismal ERA of 5.84. Buehler's xFIP projects a more favorable outcome, indicating he could improve moving forward.

Overall, with the Game Total set at 9.0 runs, betting markets see this as a closely contested matchup. The Brewers' moneyline is currently +115, which suggests they could offer good value, especially given their strong offensive capabilities and the potential for Montas to surprise.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Walker Buehler has been unlucky this year, putting up a 5.84 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.33 — a 1.51 discrepancy.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Will Smith is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 9.2% Barrel% of the Los Angeles Dodgers grades them out as the #5 group of hitters in Major League Baseball this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Among every team in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Sal Frelick's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 85.5-mph figure last year has dropped off to 83.2-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Jackson Chourio hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 111 games (+12.20 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games (+7.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Gavin Lux has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.55 Units / 30% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.97 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.32

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