Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins Pick & Prediction – 9/19/2024

• Date: September 19, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Flaherty - Dodgers
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Dodgers visit the Miami Marlins on September 19, 2024, both teams find themselves in very different positions. The Dodgers, with a stellar 90-62 record, have been a dominant force all season and are strong contenders in the National League. Meanwhile, the Marlins, sitting at 56-96, have endured a challenging season and have already been eliminated from division contention.

In this third game of the series, the Dodgers come off a strong performance, and they hope to continue their winning ways against a struggling Miami squad. The Dodgers' potent offense, ranked 2nd in MLB, is a significant threat, especially with power hitters contributing to their 3rd place ranking in home runs. The Marlins, in contrast, have struggled offensively, ranking 29th overall, and will need to find a way to generate runs against a tough opponent.

On the mound, Miami starts Edward Cabrera, who has shown flashes of potential but has been plagued by inconsistency this season. While his 4.55 ERA suggests average performance, his 3.80 xFIP indicates some bad luck, hinting at possible improvement. Cabrera faces the challenge of containing a Dodgers lineup known for its patience and power, as the Dodgers rank 3rd in walks drawn. Cabrera's high walk rate (11.4 BB%) could be a liability against this disciplined lineup.

For the Dodgers, Jack Flaherty takes the mound. With a 3.04 ERA and a 12-7 record, Flaherty has been a reliable arm for Los Angeles. His ability to limit walks (5.5 BB%) might exploit the Marlins' impatience at the plate, as Miami ranks last in walks drawn. The Dodgers' bullpen, ranked 8th compared to Miami's 29th, further tilts the odds in Los Angeles's favor.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Dodgers a 65% chance of victory, aligning with their status as big favorites. With a high-powered offense and a solid pitching matchup, the Dodgers aim to capitalize on their strengths and continue their playoff push.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Jack Flaherty has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 6.4 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Freddie Freeman may have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen projects as the 8th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Edward Cabrera must realize this, because he has used his secondary pitches a lot this year: 63.9% of the time, ranking in the 89th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

When it comes to his home runs, Kyle Stowers has had some very poor luck this year. His 9.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 22.7.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Kyle Stowers hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 75 games at home (+30.15 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 82 games (+15.95 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 50 games (+17.80 Units / 22% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.9 vs Miami Marlins 3.99

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