Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins Pick For 9/18/2024

• Date: September 18, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Landon Knack - Dodgers
  • Ryan Weathers - Marlins

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins will host the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 18, 2024, in a matchup that highlights the stark contrast between two teams in vastly different positions. The Dodgers, with a record of 89-62, are enjoying a great season, while the Marlins sit at 56-95, struggling significantly. The Marlins' recent performance has been particularly dismal, and they have already been eliminated from winning their division.

In their last game, the Dodgers were upset by the Marlins, despite showcasing their offensive prowess in an 11-10 game. The Dodgers rank 2nd in MLB for offense, bolstered by a lineup that has hit 196 home runs this season. In contrast, the Marlins’ offense ranks a lowly 29th, struggling to find consistent production and hitting only 133 home runs.

On the mound, the Marlins will send out Ryan Weathers, who has a 3-5 record and a solid ERA of 3.55 this year. However, projections suggest he may be due for regression, as his xERA stands at 4.07, indicating he has been somewhat fortunate. Weathers is a high-groundball pitcher facing a Dodgers lineup that thrives on power, which could be a critical factor in this game.

The Dodgers will counter with Landon Knack, who has had his own challenges this season. Knack's 2-4 record and 3.70 ERA mask his struggles, as he ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced metrics. His high-flyball tendencies could work in the Marlins' favor, given their lack of power.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the Marlins are significant underdogs with a moneyline of +155. Despite their struggles, there’s potential for an upset if Weathers can capitalize on the Dodgers’ high strikeout rate and keep the ball on the ground.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

With a 1.33 disparity between Landon Knack's 3.70 ERA and his 5.02 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in MLB this year and ought to perform worse in future games.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Despite posting a .332 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Miguel Rojas has experienced some positive variance given the .048 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .284.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Max Muncy pulls many of his flyballs (38.6% — 96th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 4th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Ryan Weathers's fastball spin rate has jumped 115 rpm this season (2323 rpm) over where it was last year (2208 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Over the past two weeks, Jesus Sanchez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.2% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Miami Marlins have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Griffin Conine, Jake Burger, Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 74 games at home (+29.15 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 74 games (+14.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 49 games (+16.80 Units / 21% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.92 vs Miami Marlins 4.52

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.