Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins Pick For 9/17/2024

• Date: September 17, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bobby Miller - Dodgers
  • Darren McCaughan - Marlins

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

On September 17, 2024, the Miami Marlins will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at LoanDepot Park in what marks the first game of their series. The Marlins have had a rough season, holding a record of 55-95, while the Dodgers are enjoying a strong campaign at 89-61. This game carries significant implications, especially for the Dodgers, who are jockeying for position in the playoff race.

The Marlins are projected to start Darren McCaughan, who has struggled this season with a 7.06 ERA and is ranked as the 329th best starting pitcher in MLB. He projects to pitch 4.6 innings today, allowing an average of 3.4 earned runs—numbers that don’t inspire confidence against a powerful Dodgers offense that ranks 2nd in MLB.

Bobby Miller, starting for the Dodgers, also has not been at his best, with an ERA of 8.17. However, his projections suggest he may improve, as his 4.75 xFIP points to some unfortunate luck this season. He is anticipated to pitch an average of 5.2 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, which could be enough to keep the Marlins at bay.

The matchup heavily favors the Dodgers, particularly given the stark contrast in offensive production. The Marlins rank 29th in MLB in overall offense, while the Dodgers rank 2nd, showcasing their ability to generate runs. With an implied team total of 5.47 runs for the Dodgers compared to just 4.03 for the Marlins, the odds seem stacked against Miami in this contest.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Bobby Miller's fastball velocity has fallen 1.4 mph this year (97 mph) below where it was last year (98.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Freddie Freeman stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

In today's game, Max Muncy is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.8% rate (97th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Darren McCaughan is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #24 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (22.9) provides evidence that Kyle Stowers has had bad variance on his side this year with his 10.1 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Miami Marlins have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Jake Burger, Connor Norby, Griffin Conine).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 66 games at home (+25.35 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 87 games (+14.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.05 Units / 29% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 6.46 vs Miami Marlins 4.34

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