Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels Best Bet – 9/3/2024

• Date: September 3, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Walker Buehler - Dodgers
  • Reid Detmers - Angels

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels, sitting with a disappointing record of 57-80, welcome the Los Angeles Dodgers to Angel Stadium for an interleague matchup on September 3, 2024. The Dodgers boast a strong 83-55 record and have solidified themselves as one of the top teams in the league. This game marks the first in a series between these rivals, adding a layer of excitement as they face off.

In their previous outings, both teams earned victories, though the Dodgers will be the team expected to do it again here. With Reid Detmers taking the mound for the Angels, his performance this season has been notably below-average, ranking as the 131st best starting pitcher according to advanced metrics. Detmers projects to allow 3.3 earned runs and has been prone to giving up 5.4 hits per game, which could spell trouble against a potent Dodgers lineup.

On the other hand, Walker Buehler, projected to pitch for the Dodgers, has had a rocky season as well, though his metrics show he is slightly better than Detmers. Buehler's projection of allowing 2.9 earned runs could provide a significant edge for the Dodgers, especially considering their offensive prowess, ranking 6th in team batting average and 3rd in home runs this season.

The Angels' best hitter over the last week has been Mickey Moniak, who has recorded an impressive .444 batting average with 4 home runs. In contrast, the Dodgers' Freddie Freeman has been equally remarkable, maintaining a .400 average and driving in 10 RBIs in his last few games.

With a Game Total set at 9.5 runs, this matchup could lean toward a higher scoring affair. Despite the Angels being a sizable underdog with a moneyline of +160, the projections show that they have an average implied team total of 4.08 runs, suggesting they could find some offensive footing against Buehler. However, it will take a collective effort from the Angels to overcome the Dodgers' elite lineup and recent form.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

With 6 bats who share the same handedness in the opposing team's projected lineup, Walker Buehler ought to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (8.5) implies that Kike Hernandez has been very fortunate this year with his 15.8 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Freddie Freeman has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 10th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Out of all SPs, Reid Detmers's fastball spin rate of 2138 rpm is in the 22nd percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Zach Neto has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (77% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Los Angeles Angels have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mickey Moniak, Logan O'Hoppe, Jo Adell, Niko Kavadas).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 66 games (+7.60 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 75 games (+12.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 49 games (+11.40 Units / 22% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 6.12 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.91

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