Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers Pick & Prediction – 7/13/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: July 13, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Wrobleski - Dodgers
  • Keider Montero - Tigers

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers and the Los Angeles Dodgers are set to face off on July 13, 2024, at Comerica Park in the second game of their interleague series. The Tigers, currently sitting at 45-50 and having a below-average season, will be looking to bounce back after a narrow 4-3 loss to the Dodgers in their previous game. The Dodgers, holding a strong 56-39 record, continue to lead the charge with the best offense in MLB, ranking 1st in overall offense and 3rd in home runs.

The Tigers will send Keider Montero to the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled this season with a 4.64 ERA but has shown signs of potential improvement based on his 4.03 xFIP. Montero's performance in his last start on July 8 was commendable, as he pitched 6 shutout innings. However, his overall projections for today's game are not favorable, with an expected 4.6 innings pitched and 2.8 earned runs allowed.

On the other side, the Dodgers will counter with left-hander Justin Wrobleski, who has had a rough start to his season with a 7.20 ERA. Despite this, his 4.54 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Wrobleski's projections for today aren't stellar either, with an average of 4.5 innings pitched and 2.5 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, the Tigers have struggled this season, ranking 25th in MLB. Their best hitter, Riley Greene, has been a bright spot, boasting a .266 batting average and an .856 OPS. Over the last week, Colt Keith has been the Tigers' standout performer, hitting .333 with a 1.053 OPS.

The Dodgers, led by Shohei Ohtani, have been an offensive juggernaut. Ohtani's season has been nothing short of spectacular, with a .312 batting average and 28 home runs. Over the last week, Ohtani has maintained his hot streak, hitting .318 with a 1.014 OPS.

Betting markets currently favor the Dodgers with a -135 moneyline and an implied win probability of 55%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns with this outlook, projecting the Dodgers to score 5.39 runs on average compared to the Tigers' 4.60. Despite the Tigers' underdog status at +115, their projected win probability stands at 45%, indicating a closely contested matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Andy Pages has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 16.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is significantly deflated relative to his 25.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen projects as the 8th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Compared to the average pitcher, Keider Montero has been granted a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an -10.5 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Wenceel Perez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Andy Ibanez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+7.80 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.10 Units / 48% ROI)
• Matt Vierling has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+7.00 Units / 26% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.21 vs Detroit Tigers 4.41

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