Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies Pick For 6/20/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: June 20, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gavin Stone - Dodgers
  • Ty Blach - Rockies

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers square off on June 20, 2024, at Coors Field in what will be the fourth game of their series. The Rockies, struggling this season with a 26-48 record, will look to find some spark against the Dodgers, who are having a stellar season at 46-30.

The Rockies are projected to start lefty Ty Blach, who has had a tough season. Blach's 4.65 ERA is average, but his 5.17 xERA suggests he's been lucky and might regress. He’s projected by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, to pitch 4.2 innings, allowing 3.9 earned runs, 6.7 hits, and 1.2 walks. His low strikeout rate (4.2 BB%) might help him against the Dodgers' patient offense, which leads MLB in walks, but overall, Blach's outlook isn't promising.

On the other side, the Dodgers will send Gavin Stone to the mound. Stone has been effective with a 3.01 ERA, though his 4.10 xFIP indicates he might also be due for some regression. Stone is projected to pitch 4.9 innings, giving up 3.1 earned runs, 6.1 hits, and 1.5 walks while striking out 4.5 batters. Despite these projections, the Dodgers' offense, ranked 1st in MLB, should provide ample support.

Offensively, the Rockies rank 17th overall but have struggled with power, sitting 25th in home runs. Their best hitter over the last week has been Charlie Blackmon, who has a .417 batting average and a 1.450 OPS over his last four games.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers' offense is a juggernaut, ranking 3rd in home runs and 4th in batting average. Shohei Ohtani has been on fire, hitting .379 with three home runs and 1.231 OPS over the last week.

The betting odds reflect the disparity between the teams, with the Rockies as significant underdogs at +185 and the Dodgers as heavy favorites at -220. Both teams have high implied team totals, but the Dodgers' offensive firepower and superior pitching depth make them the clear choice in this matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Among every team playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Colorado's #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Andy Pages, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Compared to league average, Ty Blach has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -10.2 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Michael Toglia is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Colorado Rockies are expected to score the 2nd-most runs (5.61 on average) on the slate today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 39 games (+8.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 45 games (+3.20 Units / 6% ROI)
• Gavin Stone has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.50 Units / 75% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 8.01 vs Colorado Rockies 5.61

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