Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies Best Bet – 6/19/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: June 19, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bobby Miller - Dodgers
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers are set to face off on June 19, 2024, at Coors Field in a National League West matchup. The Rockies, with a dismal 25-48 record, are struggling this season, while the Dodgers, boasting a 46-29 record, are having a stellar year. This game marks the third in the series between these two teams.

Ryan Feltner is projected to start for the Rockies. The right-hander has had a tough season, with a 1-6 record and a 5.71 ERA over 14 starts. However, his 3.86 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Feltner to pitch 4.7 innings, allowing 3.3 earned runs, 5.9 hits, and 1.8 walks, while striking out 3.8 batters. Despite his low walk rate of 6.0%, Feltner faces the Dodgers' patient offense, which leads MLB in drawing walks. This could be a critical factor in the game.

Bobby Miller will take the mound for the Dodgers. The right-hander has a 1-1 record with a 5.40 ERA over three starts, but his 2.58 xFIP indicates he's been unlucky and is likely to improve. Projections have Miller pitching 5.1 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, 5.5 hits, and 1.5 walks, with 5.4 strikeouts. Miller's high strikeout rate of 36.0% could be a significant advantage against the Rockies, who rank 5th in MLB for most strikeouts.

Offensively, the Rockies rank 17th overall, with a notable 11th in team batting average but a poor 26th in home runs. Hunter Goodman has been their standout hitter over the last week, recording a .333 batting average with three home runs and a 1.257 OPS. Meanwhile, the Dodgers boast the 1st ranked offense, including 3rd in both team batting average and home runs. Shohei Ohtani has been on fire recently, hitting .357 with four home runs and a 1.276 OPS over the last seven games.

The Rockies' bullpen ranks 22nd, a stark contrast to the Dodgers' 4th ranked bullpen. Given these factors, the Dodgers are heavily favored with a moneyline of -195 and an implied win probability of 64%. The Rockies are underdogs with a moneyline of +165 and a 36% implied win probability. With high team totals projected for both sides, this game promises to be an intriguing matchup at Coors Field.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Throwing 83.8 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Bobby Miller places him the 25th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Freddie Freeman stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Given the 1.35 disparity between Ryan Feltner's 5.71 ERA and his 4.36 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors this year and should see better results the rest of the season.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Ezequiel Tovar has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .339 mark is a fair amount higher than his .287 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Greg Jones in the 5th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 39 games (+11.40 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 30 away games (+3.10 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jason Heyward has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+7.65 Units / 45% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 6.92 vs Colorado Rockies 4.73

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