Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves Prediction For 9/16/2024

• Date: September 16, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers
  • Max Fried - Braves

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Truist Park on September 16, 2024, in what is shaping up to be a crucial contest in this exciting series. The Dodgers are currently enjoying a great season with a record of 87-61, sitting comfortably in playoff contention, while the Braves, with an 81-67 record, are above average but need to capitalize on their remaining games to secure a Wild Card spot.

In their last outing, the Braves struggled, while the Dodgers put together a strong performance. Max Fried is projected to take the mound for Atlanta. He has the potential to be a difference-maker, but he will need to navigate a potent Dodgers lineup that ranks 6th in MLB in team batting average and 3rd in home runs this season.

On the other side, Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be starting for Los Angeles. Yamamoto has proven to be a reliable starter, and the Braves will need to be on their game against him. Fried faces a significant challenge given the Dodgers' recent offensive success.

The Braves have a mixed offensive profile, currently ranking 18th in batting average but boasting a rank of 5th in home runs. Jorge Soler has emerged as a key contributor, recording 8 hits and 4 RBIs over the last week. Meanwhile, Tommy Edman has been the standout for the Dodgers, posting a remarkable week with 8 hits and 4 home runs.

With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs set for this matchup, the odds reflect a closely contested game. Both teams have an implied team total of 3.75 runs. This suggests that while the Braves are slightly undervalued in this matchup, they have the offensive firepower to surprise.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

As a result of his reverse platoon split, Yoshinobu Yamamoto encounters a tough challenge facing 6 hitters in the projected offense who share his hand in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Shohei Ohtani has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.5-mph to 98.2-mph in the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense ranks as the strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Max Fried's 2218-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 25th percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcell Ozuna's true offensive skill to be a .348, suggesting that he has been lucky this year given the .048 gap between that mark and his actual .396 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen grades out as the 10th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 82 of their last 129 games (+33.35 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 68 games (+14.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+11.20 Units / 124% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.55 vs Atlanta Braves 4.75

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