Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves Best Bet – 9/13/2024

• Date: September 13, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Landon Knack - Dodgers
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

On September 13, 2024, the Atlanta Braves will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Truist Park in a highly anticipated matchup. Both teams are vying for playoff positioning, with the Braves holding a record of 79-67, while the Dodgers boast a strong 87-59 record.

Spencer Schwellenbach is expected to take the mound for the Braves. Despite a Win/Loss record of 5-7 this year, Schwellenbach ranks as the 24th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, indicating that he has been somewhat unlucky with a solid ERA of 3.78. His ability to limit walks could be crucial against a patient Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB for drawing walks. However, Schwellenbach's projection of 4.9 innings pitched and 4.9 hits allowed could present challenges against a potent Dodgers offense that ranks 3rd in overall performance this season.

Landon Knack will start for the Dodgers, coming in with an impressive ERA of 3.00 but a troubling xFIP of 4.19, suggesting that he may not sustain his current success. Knack's high flyball rate could spell trouble against the Braves, who have already hit 182 home runs this season, ranking them 5th in that category.

While the Braves' offense is ranked 13th overall, their recent power surge could give them an edge in this matchup. The projections suggest that both teams will average around 4.25 runs, making this a closely contested battle. With the Braves looking to capitalize on Knack's vulnerabilities, this game promises to be pivotal in their push for a Wild Card spot.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Given the 1.57 difference between Landon Knack's 3.00 ERA and his 4.57 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the majors this year and should negatively regress the rest of the season.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Will Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (91% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 9.2% Barrel% of the Los Angeles Dodgers grades them out as the #4 team in the game this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the worst among all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Olson stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Michael Harris II hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 86 of their last 137 games (+34.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 73 games (+13.25 Units / 17% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+10.60 Units / 49% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.16 vs Atlanta Braves 4.95

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