Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals Odds & Picks – 8/11/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: August 11, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to take on the Los Angeles Angels at Nationals Park on August 11, 2024, both teams find themselves struggling this season. The Nationals sit at 54-64, while the Angels trail slightly with a record of 51-66. Given their struggles, this interleague matchup offers a chance for both clubs to find some momentum, especially after the Angels dropped yesterday's game against the Nationals in extra innings.

On the mound, the Nationals will give the ball to MacKenzie Gore, who has had an average season with a Win/Loss record of 7-9 and an ERA of 4.66. Gore has been projected to pitch around 5.6 innings and allow approximately 2.6 earned runs today. Notably, his 3.99 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky this season and could improve. Conversely, the Angels will counter with Jack Kochanowicz, who has struggled significantly in his limited appearances, posting an abysmal ERA of 14.14 through two starts. Kochanowicz projects to allow 2.5 earned runs but has a high groundball rate of 56%, which may neutralize the Nationals' lack of power.

Despite their poor overall offenses—ranked 24th and 23rd in MLB, respectively—the Nationals have a glimmer of hope. The projections indicate that the Nationals could score around 4.26 runs in this game, bolstered by James Wood's hot streak, as he’s been the team's best performer over the last week. Meanwhile, Zach Neto has been a bright spot for the Angels, contributing significantly in his recent outings.

With the Nationals favored at a moneyline of -155, the betting market suggests a stronger chance for a Washington victory than the projections. This matchup could be pivotal for both teams as they look to build on recent performances and gain some much-needed confidence moving forward.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Considering that flyball pitchers have a significant edge over flyball batters, Jack Kochanowicz and his 50.9% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable position in today's matchup squaring off against 6 opposing FB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Zach Neto has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.3-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 88.8-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore's change-up usage has spiked by 5.8% from last season to this one (2.9% to 8.7%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Extreme flyball batters like Harold Ramirez generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Jack Kochanowicz.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nasim Nunez in the 8th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 61 of their last 106 games (+9.60 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 75 games (+6.20 Units / 8% ROI)
• Alex Call has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.80 Units / 42% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.76 vs Washington Nationals 4.19

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