Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick & Preview – 8/25/2024

• Date: August 25, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays and the Los Angeles Angels will face off on August 25, 2024, at Rogers Centre in what is the fourth game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Blue Jays holding a record of 62-68, while the Angels sit at 54-76. Despite their respective challenges, the Blue Jays are positioned as significant favorites with a moneyline of -175, reflecting a 62% implied probability of winning.

In their last meeting, the Blue Jays picked up a win, extending their current winning streak to three games in a row. The Blue Jays are projected to start Kevin Gausman, a right-handed pitcher who has been average this season, sporting an 11-9 record and a 4.24 ERA. However, his xERA of 4.96 indicates he has been somewhat fortunate thus far. Meanwhile, the Angels will counter with the left-handed Tyler Anderson, who has a solid 3.46 ERA but struggles with a high xFIP of 4.78 and a low strikeout rate of 18.7%.

This matchup presents an interesting dynamic, as Gausman faces an Angels offense that ranks 24th in the league, while the Blue Jays' offense, although average overall, ranks 27th in home runs and has been inconsistent. The projections suggest the Blue Jays will score 4.87 runs on average, compared to the Angels' 4.29 runs. Given Gausman’s strikeout potential and Anderson's susceptibility to flyballs, Toronto might have the edge in this matchup.

The leading MLB projection system indicates that the Blue Jays should capitalize on their pitching advantage, making them the team to watch as they seek redemption in front of their home crowd.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Considering that flyball hitters struggle against flyball pitchers, Tyler Anderson (39.3% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 FB hitters in the opposing team's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kevin Pillar's average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 85.5-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 81.5-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Kevin Gausman's higher usage rate of his fastball this season (58.8 compared to 50.8% last season) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Extreme flyball batters like Daulton Varsho tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Tyler Anderson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Joey Loperfido hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 56 games (+21.55 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 45 games (+4.30 Units / 9% ROI)
• Kevin Gausman has hit the Earned Runs Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+8.60 Units / 80% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.29 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.91

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