Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Pick – 4/15/2025

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers host the Los Angeles Angels on April 15, 2025, both teams are looking to capitalize on their strong starts to the season. The Rangers currently sit at 9-7, while the Angels boast a slightly better record at 9-6. This matchup is critical in the American League West, as both teams aim to gain an upper hand early in their series.

The Rangers will send Tyler Mahle to the mound, who has been solid this season with a 2-0 record and an impressive 1.32 ERA. However, Mahle's 4.46 xFIP indicates that he may have benefitted from some luck, suggesting potential regression. His high flyball rate could be troubling against an Angels offense that leads MLB with 30 home runs. On the other side, Yusei Kikuchi takes the hill for the Angels with a 0-2 record and a 5.00 ERA. Despite his struggles, projections indicate that Kikuchi could improve, given his lower xFIP of 4.39.

Offensively, the Rangers rank 24th in MLB, struggling particularly in batting average at 26th, while their power ranks average at 12th in home runs. The Angels, by contrast, are 7th in MLB offensively, with a powerful lineup that includes the league's best home run production.

Given the Rangers' projected team total of 4.45 runs and the Angels at 4.05, the odds suggest a close contest. With the Rangers' bullpen ranked 22nd, they will need Mahle to deliver a strong performance to secure the win against a potent Angels lineup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Yusei Kikuchi has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 9.3% more often this year (62.4%) than he did last year (53.1%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jo Adell has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.4-mph average to last year's 89.6-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Los Angeles Angels have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jo Adell, Kyren Paris, Logan O'Hoppe).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Out of all SPs, Tyler Mahle's fastball velocity of 91.2 mph grades out in the 17th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme flyball batters like Kyle Higashioka are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Yusei Kikuchi.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers' bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 70 games at home (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 63 games (+5.60 Units / 8% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.32, Texas Rangers 4.48

• Date: April 15, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Angels
  • Tyler Mahle - Rangers

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